2/4, folding an A high flush

[Rotterdaum]

Villain is 25/9/4 over 80 hands, no other reads.
Is my bet on the river bad? I thought there was about an 80% chance he had 99


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($468.46)
SB ($398.40)
Hero ($446.30)
UTG ($66)
MP ($608.98)
CO ($501.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $4, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($20) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($20) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $35</font>, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $110</font>, CO calls $75.

River: ($240) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $325</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $715

[Big_Jim]

BET THE FLOP

[delta k]

bet flop.

[Rotterdaum]

no
you honestly think it's not fine to check on the flop?

[T-God]

YES

[delta k]

Isura just posted basically the same flop of a nut flush and he c/c. I don't get it, why don't we bet? no one thinks we have the nut frush!

[Rotterdaum]

I'll tell you why I, personally, don't bet

i don't bet because i've played over 500k hands and in this situation in my experience when I frontbet the flop out of the blue, everyone folds an overwhelming majority of the time, which I don't think is quite good enough of a pay off for a nut flush.

[Rotterdaum]

Tell me what calls you here ... you're bettig into 4 players in early position on a dangerous looking board. I think the deception of checking the flop is worth a lot. The chance of a suckout is not that great with a hand this strong, but by slow playing flop you can get paid by hands like Js7x among many that don't necessarily hit a flush but don't buy you have one either

[CopTHIS]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me what calls you here ... you're bettig into 4 players in early position on a dangerous looking board. I think the deception of checking the flop is worth a lot. The chance of a suckout is not that great with a hand this strong, but by slow playing flop you can get paid by hands like Js7x

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no doubt to me that betting the flop is way better.

[Rotterdaum]

could someone give a convincing explanation of this?

By the way i'm not saying it's better to check but I do think either is fine.