#1
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NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA
My read: the guy is a complete calling station (hint; he had a fish icon over 1,000 hands *blub blub*) and while I could certainy be roped-a-doped here I feel that I am ahead here most of the time. I also strongly feel that he will feel "commited" to call my last bet after calling all streets so far. Im thinking Jx (probably KJ, QJ) is his most likely holdings but he could as well have kings or queens since he wouldn't raise these hands preflop (as stated he was extremely passive). Well thats my analysis, but how shrewd is it? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Do I get away with betting this big against this particular opponent or should I try something exotic like a sexy river c/r [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 9 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $32.10 UTG+1: $31.45 Hero: $119.20 MP2: $98.35 MP3: $24.10 CO: $57.80 Button: $107.95 SB: $16.35 BB: $89.50 Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds. Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9.5, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, Button calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($21.5, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $13</font>, Button calls. River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($47.5, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $96.2</font>, |
#2
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Re: NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA
Oh and yes, I could, and probably should have bet more on the previous streets, dunno why I didn't. The same situation would occur on the river anyway, tho it may be less of an overbet.
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#3
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Re: NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA
A Check-raise is just fancy play syndrome here.
If you think he'll pay you off, pushing is alright here. However, I think a much better line against a calling station would be to bet the pot on the flop and turn. That will leave you with a perfect stack size to push the river, which a calling station will most probably call with Jx |
#4
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Re: NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA
If he really is such a calling station, I like the overbet push. I think it'd be better to bet more on earlier streets, though. $9 on the flop results in a $27 turn pot. $25 on the turn results in a $75 river pot with about $70 behind. Makes for an easier push.
Eww at a check-raise against a calling station. |
#5
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Re: NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA
Haha yes, the check-raise was more or less a joke. I agree with betting more on the previous streets, it would make it a potsized push on the river. Nevertheless I think the same question will still hold, and we all agree that pushing is the right line, or should we wait for stronger than one-pair hands against this type of fish?
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