Played like a pussy?

[youdidwhat]

Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Wuss: $103.10
UTG+1: $99
MP1: $241.55
MP2: $23.45
MP3: $131.40
CO: $40
Button: $185.10
SB: $46.40
BB: $99

Pre-flop: (9 players) Wuss is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Wuss raises to $3.5</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($15.5, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Wuss bets $11</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $23</font>, CO folds, Wuss calls $12 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was $49.5)</font>.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($61.5, 2 players)
Wuss checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $58.5</font>, Wuss folds.
Uncalled bets: $58.5 returned to MP1.

Results:
Final pot: $61.5

Reads on opponent - tight preflop, can be a bit too aggressive in hands sometimes, but that's just my impression. Late in the session, I'm a bit tired, my concentration not the best. On the turn I've got the second nut flush, but who knows. I didn't mind folding, but ... maybe I should have reraised the flop - and/or maybe led the turn. Obv. I'm dead to the flopped (or turned) FH.

[joewatch]

A lot of players will try to push off AA on the flop with the nut flush draw here, so he could very well have Axxxs [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I think you have to lead the turn something like 1/4 pot to find out.

[guilt_trip]

I'd have either re-raised on the flop or probe betted the river as joewatch says. All things considering I like the turn probe bet better

[glass_onion]

I'd like to enter my new theory on set here, and get some feedback. The problem with this one is you are likely to only get action from someone with a 4 or JJ. Assuming another 4, your KK kills your outs.

if he has the A and 2 other cards you are dead:

pokenum -o kh kd 4s 3h - ah 4c 6c 7s -- 4h jh 4d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 4d Jh 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s Kd Kh 3h 307 37.44 513 62.56 0 0.00 0.374
7s 6c 4c Ah 513 62.56 307 37.44 0 0.00 0.626

With him having even with 3 cards under K, and no flush draw, you are 60%:

pokenum -o as ac 3s 4d - 8c 9d ts 3h -- 3c 3d 7s
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 3c 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s Ac 4d 499 60.85 321 39.15 0 0.00 0.609
Ts 8c 9d 3h 321 39.15 499 60.85 0 0.00 0.391

So for me being OOP is such a drain to ev here. IE when you bet turn or river you are stepping blind into whether he filled up or not. The best line, OOP, with what is probably best set best kicker, is to get it all in. You missed a heck of an opporitunity to do that on the flop. This negates positinal disadvantage. Also, as you said he overplays hands, so much more the better. He won't fold with a 4, so you aren't losing much anyway.

pokenum -o as ac 3s kd - 8c 9d ts 3h -- 3c 3d 7s
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 3c 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s Ac Kd 526 64.15 294 35.85 0 0.00 0.641
Ts 8c 9d 3h 294 35.85 526 64.15 0 0.00 0.359




pokenum -o as ac 3s 4d - 8c 9d ts 3h -- 3c 3d 7s
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 3c 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s Ac 4d 499 60.85 321 39.15 0 0.00 0.609
Ts 8c 9d 3h 321 39.15 499 60.85 0 0.00 0.391

pokenum -o as ac 3s kd - 8c 9d ts 3h -- 3c 3d 7s
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 3c 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s Ac Kd 526 64.15 294 35.85 0 0.00 0.641
Ts 8c 9d 3h 294 35.85 526 64.15 0 0.00 0.359