#1
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Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
$1-$2 No Limit Cash game. UTG player raises $10. 2 MP players call. Hero in SB calls with 33. Flop is 9h 3d 2h. Hero moves in for his last $65. UTG calls with AhAs. Turn 9. River 9. What are the odds of your set being counterfeited by a larger set? Thanks in advance. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#2
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
I think you can do this. How many ways are there for the Turn&River to counterfeit you? How many ways are there for a turn & river to come? What's the first number divided by the second number?
-Sam |
#3
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
There is only one overcard on the board, so only one turn/river combination will do it.
45!43!/2 = 990 so 1 in 990, but don't forget that there are many other ways to lose this hand (AA, 45) |
#4
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
Dammit, Mark! I was teaching him to fish, and you come in here handing tuna sandwiches to anybody who asks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam |
#5
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
In your situation, there are C(3,2) out of C(47,2)=990
ways you can get "counterfeited" or 3 combinations out of 990 when you see running deuces. In this example, your opponent can also win by hitting an ace without you hitting the case 3 in 2*42 = 84 combinations as well as making a flush without the 3 of hearts on C(8,2) = 28 combinations and a wheel on another 15. Altogether, you can lose on 130 combinations out of 990 or about 13.13% of the time. |
#6
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
[ QUOTE ]
Dammit, Mark! I was teaching him to fish, and you come in here handing tuna sandwiches to anybody who asks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] -Sam [/ QUOTE ] But my Tuna sandwiches were off, so learning to fish is a much better prospect. 3 in 990, as BigPooch said (because there are 3 ways of getting two running nines, not one). |
#7
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
Also, I mean running nines and not deuces in my post.
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#8
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
bigpooch,
There are 139 boards that win for the AA hand (I cheated and used pokenum). You miscounted the flushes: C(9,2) = 36 Also you forgot 1 for AA. That still leaves 3 unaccounted for. What are we missing? |
#9
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
Oh yeah, the 3 99 combos. Duh. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
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#10
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Re: Odds of your set being counterfeited by larger set?
This post pisses me off, I've had every set last week except for one counterfeited by a higher one. I prevented the last one from getting busted by banging hard very early so there was no river!! Running bad yes...
I guess it is dumb to slowplay smaller sets, and that's what I get. |
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