NL100 - Pushing all-in with set when the flushcard hits

[El Ninho]

Villan in this hand is one of the regulars at this stake. I have a couple of thousand hands on him and I have quite a solid read on him. He is tight and quite straightforward, but he is like 17/5/2 so I think he is generally lacking some aggression and he is prone to slowplay big hands.

The standard play when he checks the flop is of course to bet, but because I was quite confident he would have bet a flushdraw and I thought there was a good chance he would bet into me on the turn If I checked I decided to do so. Well the turn hits me hard and when he comes alive and bets I really figure him for either nothing or something like a slowplayed set... So, how do you like my line here? Pushing this river makes sense?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $56.10
UTG+1: $167.10
MP1: $45.10
MP2: $101.40
Hero: $168.55
CO: $42.25
Button: $143.35
SB: $181.95
BB: $174.10

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ([i]$8.5,
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ([i]$8.5,
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $15</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $59.5</font>, Hero calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ([i]$127.5,
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $111.05</font>, BB calls.

Results:
Final pot: $349.6

[carnivalhobo]

push the turn?

[kitaristi0]

Shove the turn.

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
push the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking. He obviously likes his hand so you might as well get the money in on the turn

[CaucasianAsian29]

I'm wondering how many people bet this flop?

[kitaristi0]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how many people bet this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I always bet this flop.

[Jamougha]

If your style is not to c-bet 100% then you can obv check here occasionally.

Jesus dude, push the turn, he has a set...

river is fine.

[El Ninho]

Well, I guess pushing the turn is definitely standard. The reason for calling is that I think it can confuse some not-so-likely but still possible holdings like two-pair to call a blank river whereas he might see the obvious set and fold to a push on the turn. On the river I push even tho the flush hits because I still believe he will pay me off with his probable set. Am I thinking "too much" just not shoving the turn here? If I can credit villain for laying down a two-pair on the turn, calling still isn't worth it?

[kitaristi0]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess pushing the turn is definitely standard. The reason for calling is that I think it can confuse some not-so-likely but still possible holdings like two-pair to call a blank river whereas he might see the obvious set and fold to a push on the turn. On the river I push even tho the flush hits because I still believe he will pay me off with his probable set. Am I thinking "too much" just not shoving the turn here? If I can credit villain for laying down a two-pair on the turn, calling still isn't worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]

When has anyone at NL100 ever folded two pair?

[El Ninho]

[ QUOTE ]
When has anyone at NL100 ever folded two pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, imo it's a little unrealistic to think such things never occur. Yes NL100 is of course very fishy, but you can't treat every player the same as the other one. There is certainly degrees of fishiness even at NL100, and dare I say it, at least some FAIRLY competent players. If I know a player to be playing tight straight-up poker and he figures me to the same, if he narrows down my holding to a set why would he call me? Im not saying he will always fold, he will still probably call often, but If I think calling has a positive value it is possible that it's the best play, right? Sure shoving is best most of the time, but even at smaller stakes I just don't believe in routinely doing plays based on simple thinking like "it's NL100, they never fold" because It is simply not true.