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#1
08-17-2006, 12:19 PM
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Sanity Check with Big Stack
So we have the big stack on the BTN. SB and BB are both short. BB is in 100% and SB is in "most of the time." We look down and see 56o. ICM is going to say +EV every time. Why is this? Here's a Bubble Trainer example(So I am big stack and two shorties have ~800):
Settings Hands Played 89 Correct Hands 82 (92%) Reset Stats Breakdown EV Preflop 40.67% EV Push 40.86% EV Fold 40.65% EV Diff 0.21% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correct Action: PUSH Your Action: FOLD Blinds: 400/800 2610 1601 851 813 (74%) 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J2+, T3o+, T2s+, 95o+, 93s+, 86o+, 84s+, 75s+, 65s 826 (100%) 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J2+, T2+, 92+, 82+, 72+, 62+, 52+, 42+, 32 802 12497 Copyright 2006 pregopoker.com. | Terms of Service 
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#3
08-17-2006, 12:42 PM
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Re: Sanity Check with Big Stack
I tried to ICM it, but couldn't figure out your numbers. Basically any time that you are still going to be a big stack even if you lose, the numbers are going to tell you to push. The stacks of the blinds are so insignificant in comparison to yours.
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#4
08-17-2006, 12:49 PM
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Re: Sanity Check with Big Stack
Remember, Bubble Trainer is only taking into account one caller. So 74% of the time, SB will Call and BB will fold (leaving 76 behind) and your getting about ~3:1 heads up. The other 26% of the time SB will fold and BB will call and you'll be getting ~1.5:1.
In real life you'll get called by both and your chances to win a dramatically reduced, but according to bubble trainer BB is retarded and will fold 74% of the time.
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#5
08-17-2006, 12:53 PM
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Re: Sanity Check with Big Stack
Indy, wtf can you give like an actual situation? I have no idea what all that gibberish is indicating in terms of an actual table setup.
Yugoslav
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#6
08-17-2006, 12:59 PM
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Re: Sanity Check with Big Stack
[ QUOTE ]
Indy, wtf can you give like an actual situation? I have no idea what all that gibberish is indicating in terms of an actual table setup. Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] Ok I'm sorry. Lets say we are 5-handed. There are a couple of medium stacks in there and I'm on the BTN with a huge stack. Say blinds are 400/800. Say I know that the BB will be all in if I push because he only has 875 behind. SB has 800 and has posted 400 so he's like >=75% to call if I push. WHy would the math tell me to push? I mean, intuitively. I mean, if SB had more chips I could see a push to preclude SB from stomping on BB but not when I know im getting called in 2 places. Dont make no kinda sense to me. Indy
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#8
08-17-2006, 01:04 PM
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Re: Sanity Check with Big Stack
[ QUOTE ]
As previously stated. SNGPT does not calculate in overcalls. So if the SB calls, BB will fold according to SNGPT. This makes this calculation very incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] Oh i see. So if we did the real ICM u think this would be REALLY -EV or only a small loss? Indy
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#9
08-17-2006, 01:08 PM
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Re: Sanity Check with Big Stack
So it's like 400/800 and it's like 4.5k/4.5k/9k/801/875? Something like that?
I dunno I doubt it's a push any two spot since it's 3 way soooo often. In fact, the chances of someone busting when you fold is like extremely close to 100% and I'd imagine ICM *loves* that. However, I think SB will somehow find a way to fold way too much here so I definitely would push a large range......I'm guessing like 70% of push hands? Meh, I don't really feel confident at all in that guess though to be honest. Maybe I'll do that in a minute or two. (the issue with sngpt obviously is it doesn't account for your folding equity or what happens when it's 3way...and these two things are so important here). Yugoslav
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