Very tight raiser re raises your AK

[Little_blue]

Reads mp3 33/2/.70 on 250 or so hands..checked notes he cold calls no notes about reraises (usely I note this) and he is not short stacked (I always check this when tight raisers rais).

(9 handed)
2/4 game at Pacific

I'm UG2 with AKo

checked to me, I rais, mp2 calls , mp3 (my tight raising frend) 3 bets it, folded back to me, ug2 calls and mp2 calls

(against this tight a raiser I don't 4 bet and realy want to fold)..

3 players 7.5 bets
Flop A, K, 6 rain bowUg2 bets, mp2 folds , mp3 raises

Thoughts, I called and unhappily called it down

[Man of Means]

Once he raised the flop it's either AA,KK, or AK
AA/KK 1 combination each, AK 4 combinations.

Looks like a calldown statistically, but if you have an ironclad read that he would not have 3-bet AK, then maybe just maybe you could fold the turn UI. I would hate to fold, so I'd just pay that man his money and get it back later on his loose preflop calls.

Also this will benefit you to note how he plays a flopped monster.

[ThomasPHoolery]

If you think the only hands he can have once he raises you on the flop are AA, KK and AK, this is a call down if we don't discount AK.

There are 6 possible combos of hands he could have at this point, 1 AA, 1 KK and 4 AK. vs AA and KK we are dead, vs AK our equity is 1/2. Since he has AK 2/3 of the time without discounting that hand, our overall equity vs his range is 1/3. 5.5BB out there right now, a call down is 2.5 more BB in a 7.5BB pot. Pot is big enough right now to call down.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet AK, then maybe just maybe you could fold the turn UI. I would hate to fold, so I'd just pay that man his money and get it back later on his loose preflop calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding top two in this size pot in online poker will be the death of you when you move up in limits. There is a very small chance he has AQs, this is online poker.

[Man of Means]

Two outs vs KK

[SilverLining1]

[ QUOTE ]
Once he raised the flop it's either AA,KK, or AK
AA/KK 1 combination each, AK 4 combinations.

Looks like a calldown statistically, but if you have an ironclad read that he would not have 3-bet AK, then maybe just maybe you could fold the turn UI. I would hate to fold, so I'd just pay that man his money and get it back later on his loose preflop calls.

Also this will benefit you to note how he plays a flopped monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good.

[Little_blue]

Just a thought, are their any Re raisers who are tight enought that it would be correct to fold AK when its reraised..pre flop....

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a thought, are their any Re raisers who are tight enought that it would be correct to fold AK when its reraised..pre flop....

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in limit Hold'em.

[ThomasPHoolery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once he raised the flop it's either AA,KK, or AK
AA/KK 1 combination each, AK 4 combinations.

Looks like a calldown statistically, but if you have an ironclad read that he would not have 3-bet AK, then maybe just maybe you could fold the turn UI. I would hate to fold, so I'd just pay that man his money and get it back later on his loose preflop calls.

Also this will benefit you to note how he plays a flopped monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good.

[/ QUOTE ]

To make folding EVER correct, you have to discount AK by 50% . In 250 hands I am NEVER that confident about a read. Any line on this hand that does not get to showdown is a bad line. Trying to make an aggressive play that in some way lets us make a "good laydown" earlier in the hand in a situation like this is very rarely correct.

[HoneyBadger]

I didn't completely get the above calculation, but you're saying the same thing as this right? 10.5 SBs in the pot after his flop raise, if you solidly put him on AA/KK/AK you can only win half the pot. So you stand to win 5.25 SBs and you need to invest another 5 SBs to call down. So you need to split roughly 50% of the time. As you split 2/3rd of the time on hand frequency it is worth the investment. Also, you might be ahead.