NL200 Flop nut flush draw + TP

Van Strummer · #1 08-14-2006, 08:08 PM

Just moved over from tournament play and have problems with the 100BB stacks [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]. Villain is 30/10/1.00 over about 100 hands. Fold or push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($180.14)
BB ($198.02)
UTG ($453.28)
Hero ($300.50)
Button ($159.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($13) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $9, Hero raises to $26, BB raises to $80, Hero ????

FGators · #2 08-14-2006, 08:15 PM

This is a totally standard push. Without the heart draw or the top pair its a fold but with the combo draw its an easy gamble situation you need to take in cash games.

Go_Blue88 · #3 08-14-2006, 08:32 PM

push (as a tourney player, would you ever fold this?)

if you were deeper, i'd just call.

DJ Sensei · #4 08-14-2006, 09:44 PM

stack sizes = push

ArturiusX · #5 08-14-2006, 09:49 PM

WHAT??? How can you even consider this a fold? Even if he flips over a set you still have to call.

NT! · #6 08-14-2006, 10:01 PM

SSNL

PUSH

NT

mikechops · #7 08-14-2006, 10:37 PM

Why are we pushing? I figure we have zero fold equity. The guy has put almost half his stack in on a 3-bet. At best, we are racing against his range. Seems almost 0 EV to me. Isn't calling better?

Board: 8h Ad 9h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.1061 % 45.90% 00.21% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 53.8939 % 53.69% 00.21% { AA, 99-88, A9s-A8s, QhTh, 98s, 7h6h, A9o }

I'm not saying a push is wrong - I just want someone to tell me why it is better than a call/evaluate line.

AMT · #8 08-14-2006, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we pushing? I figure we have zero fold equity. The guy has put almost half his stack in on a 3-bet. At best, we are racing against his range. Seems almost 0 EV to me. Isn't calling better?

Board: 8h Ad 9h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.1061 % 45.90% 00.21% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 53.8939 % 53.69% 00.21% { AA, 99-88, A9s-A8s, QhTh, 98s, 7h6h, A9o }

I'm not saying a push is wrong - I just want someone to tell me why it is better than a call/evaluate line.

[/ QUOTE ]

the board pairing is very bad for our hand and we could be ahead here vs bad villains. id rather get my money in now.

SuperPokerJedi · #9 08-15-2006, 12:04 AM

These are the opportuinities you look for in NL, let's not forget that we have fold equity when the Villain has no set (nits lay 2-pair here). Additionally, he may be playing a lower Flush draw hard for decptive value. An All-in move gives us two opportunities to make the most of our Nut draw when we are behind, let's take it:

Bang It In!!! !!

mikechops · #10 08-15-2006, 12:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
These are the opportuinities you look for in NL, let's not forget that we have fold equity when the Villain has no set (nits lay 2-pair here). Additionally, he may be playing a lower Flush draw hard for decptive value. An All-in move gives us two opportunities to make the most of our Nut draw when we are behind, let's take it:

Bang It In!!! !!

[/ QUOTE ]

Nits who would fold 2-pair, ain't 3-betting with 40% of their stack. He'd be getting over 3:1 on the call, if we push. I figure anybody who 3-bets here, is going all the way. Fold equity is very small IMO.