Genius or idiot?

[Ignignokt]

I know you've already formed an idea on that (I don't want to hear it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), but it's a play I'm talking about:

Basically it's a free-card play with overcards. I do this almost strictly at B&M where my reads are pretty solid:

1. I pick up AK and raise in position. I get one caller who's somewhere between donkey and drunk. He'll play all aces, low PPs or sooooted paint vs. a PFR. He bluffs very rarely.

2. Flop comes Qxx or Jxx or Txx, disconnected board. Villain bets. I raise.

What makes this iffy is that 95% of the time this particular villain has me beat here. He either has a low pair and can be reasonably certain the Q didn't help me (most villains assume AK unless shown otherwise), or he caught a pair on the flop.

On the other hand, the vast majority of the time his hand is shaky at best. If he DID flop top pair, chances are he doesn't like his kicker; if he has a low PP the raise has got to make him uncertain that I don't have AQ/QQ.

Of course, I don't intend on putting another dime into the pot UI; he's unlikely to fold anything.

Questions:

Is this play +EV? If I'm that sure I'm beaten, should I just be folding? Or is my evidence a small sample size, and in the long run I'll run into a bluff here enough that it's worth the one BB?

I have occasionally also done this with JJ-KK when an ace falls and a coldcaller donks. I've never seen this situation end with villain not showing a weak ace. Does a flop raise have any value whatsoever?

[bennyhana]

good question. infortunately i don't have a good answer, other than I do this pretty regularly.

I think it mostly depends on wether or not he will fold if he caught any piece of the board, or a little pp. Sometimes I do this or sometimes I will just call and bluff raise the turn and hope for a free showdown.

[dboy23]

I am familiar with this type of game. I play a 3/6 game live that is about the same as you describe. I tend to just fold unless I know they are really aggressive (which is really rare). They pay off so well when you do hit, so I prefer not to bother with it when I don't. They don't understand semibluffing, as they only check call. Strangly enough they will bet bottom pair and put you on AK all day.

I think the play is -EV. You have to catch one of your 6 outs to take the pot, and that is all there is to it.

I have found that bluffs only work when you triple barral. They want to see all the cards, and will only call on the river with middle pair or better. So to get them off of bottom pair you literally have to bet the whole way and the river, and just hope they didnt improve. I try not to do it much because I get looked up so much. But One time I did get looked up by some lady with a weaker ace. good times.

[Bruce D]

Well, if your reads are correct, I don't raise him. If he never folds here its -EV and you have to catch your draw.

Lets say that you have 5 outs for your overs (since sometimes you may be reverse dominated if he decided to limp in with AQ or AJ or AT) and 1.5 outs for your back door straight draw. If you also have a bd fd then this is another 1.5 outs. You have 8 outs. I call and reevaluate the turn.

However, without the BD flush draw, or the BD straight draw, a call is -EV so a raise is even more so in this situation.

[Smurph64]

*grunch*

this is a bluff that works enough to make trying it against a weak opponent. 1 bet to take 9 if I am counting correctly. I am assumming you are going for the fold here. It should work way better than 1 out of nine times. If the villain calls you have a 4.5 to 1 draw for your six outs on the turn if he raises. with one card to come that is a 3.2 to 1 draw plus likely two extra bets if your card comes.

Worse case you fold to a reraise, best case you take it uncontested.

The key thing is knowing if this guy will fold a hand that is not rock solid or will he just call down. I would try and keep track of his showdown percentage first before making the move.

Also know that going to showdown and losing with this hand is not a bad thing. It generally stops people for at least a few hands from bluffing at you, and while not helping your ability to bluff, knowing that you are likely getting truer play on your value bets is important.

[freedom18]

sure its +EV if u the pot is big enough [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] aka 1:10 to call and you know theyn ever play back at you

[Smurph64]

3 bets for the blinds 4 bets to the two remaining participants is a 7 bet pot.

Raise by opponent on flop is 1 more bet. Your reraise is 2 more bets.

Now I assume he is calling here. If you were going to fold then its a moot point.

So the raise here of one bet is an attempt to steal 9 bets already in the pot.

[halpgr]

On its own it's probably -EV. The free card isn't worth what you're paying for it. It seems useful from a big picture perspective to discourage bluffing, and to keep opponents off balance. In the future you can raise a Jxx flop and they don't know if you have QQ-AA, or AQ-AK, since you'll sometimes raise with just AK. Maybe you don't have to do it everytime with missed AK.

[Dastone]

As long as you have good timing, meaning you are aware of your image, and your opponnents tendancies, I think this is a very useful tool. If you are sure that opponnent(s) will check to you, and you can see the turn, and river for the cheap cost, than do it.

I also like that this play gains value when we improve on the turn.

It disguises our holdings, because we may have an overpair, with this line causing doubt in our opponnents, and leading to future mistakes from them. Like paying us off, and drawing improperly.

It also does stop, or slow down opponnents who may be, or are semi bluffing.

All in all, I think it is +EV in the long run. It maintains an aggressive image, forcing opponnents to check to the raiser. NOTE: In future encounters, when they do bet into us after having seen this play I would not attempt since this means we are likely way behind. It also helps to yeild better reads on our opponnents.

Also, like you mentioned I use this much more primarily in live games w/ opponnents I know, and where my reads are slightly more accurate, due to extra available info.

[BobbyShaftoe]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this play +EV? If I'm that sure I'm beaten, should I just be folding? Or is my evidence a small sample size, and in the long run I'll run into a bluff here enough that it's worth the one BB?


[/ QUOTE ]

My god, I've been doing this and I'm not sure I'm happy with my results, either, but I just don't know.

This thread shows why the Micros rock.

I like Dastone's response. My inner LAG wants to read it over and over for Dastone speaks of Shania.