5/10 10-500, TPWK vs. nutbar, what is your line?

cpk · #1 08-14-2006, 03:45 PM

This is a live 5/10 10-500 game at Tulalip. You have K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB in a game which is very loose and passive preflop. UTG+1 is a nutjob who doesn't raise a lot preflop but very aggressively bets postflop and will fire three times with garbage. On the other hand he is not a complete idiot and will fold fairly good hands if he perceives he is beaten.

Your stack: $500
UTG+1 stack: $1300
Others: not relevant

The action so far:

Pre-flop. 9 players. UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 callers, SB completes, you check.

Pot: $66. Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 7 players. SB checks, you check, UTG+1 bets $50. Everyone else folds. What is your line?

Extra credit: What if you had $1300 also? Would it make a difference?

I think the line I took was reasonable under the circumstance, but I'm curious to see what others think.

thedustbustr · #2 08-14-2006, 03:58 PM

fold. fold.

cpk · #3 08-14-2006, 04:03 PM

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fold. fold.

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Really?

I said "he fires three times with crap," but maybe I should be more explicit: You're going to fold top pair HU against a guy who has shown 8-high, J-high, and bottom pair after three rounds of betting in the last 40 minutes? Isn't that a tad bit weak tight, especially with a short-ish stack?

Johnny 99 · #4 08-14-2006, 04:12 PM

You have to give him some credit for firing into 7 opponents. But you have 2 backdoor draws and it is likely that you are good and almost close the action. You also have the max buy-in and should be thinking about winning a descent pot so that you will be able to make some money later in the session.

This is a great opportunity to give some action in this game. Not that this hand should automatically make it to showdown, but if you choose to take it there, I think it is good for that crowd to see you make a 3 street calldown w/ little so that they will not be so happy to run you out of too many pots.

I think it is obvious that you prefer to see if he wants to fire 3 barrels than see if he wants to lay down a descent king in this case.

IF you had $1300, It would make some difference. I'd still call, but I would be less likely to diminish a medium stack in that game, so w/o picking up extra outs on the turn I would be less likely to call a descent be there and on the river. It would also matter if I felt as though my stack size would effect how he bets 4th street.

cpk · #5 08-14-2006, 04:41 PM

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You have to give him some credit for firing into 7 opponents.

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He's not sensitive to the number of opponents.

OK, assume you take the 3 street call-down line and it goes $50, $150, $250? I think I did OK by calling the $50 and $150, becuase this was standard behavior for him. But the $250 river bet was mildly suspicious--usually he would scale back to 1/3 pot or something like that. But he is certainly capable of bluffing for this amount as well. Nevertheless, betting more half the pot like this was a danger signal, and I pondered that for some time. . . .

Johnny 99 · #6 08-14-2006, 05:01 PM

$716 in pot, $250 to call. Tough spot to be in. You cannot call that. Would he bet A9 or QQ like that? Could that be a stone cold 3 St. bluff? w/o many draws on board wouldn't it have to be?

You mentioned that he had been caught 3 times in the last hour or so. Were they all busted draws?

How does he perceive you? Have you been laying down a lot. Making big calls?

W/o more info, I think he has >KQ, or a set more often than 3/4 and you do not have odds to call. That's a large bet to make in position against a likely made hand, but not so big that it is trying to get a real good hand to fold. It looks like you have KJ. It looks like a value bet to me.

BTW, what was the turn card? and the river card?

flawless_victory · #7 08-14-2006, 05:07 PM

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fold. fold.

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Really?

[/ QUOTE ]really.
some might say folding no hand is a 9way pot is "weaktightt"... those ppl are broke.

Garland · #8 08-14-2006, 05:10 PM

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OK, assume you take the 3 street call-down line and it goes $50, $150, $250?

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Check-calling generally isn't a good strategy for winning in no-limit. You're calling off almost your entire stack on what you perceive might be a bluff? When you flop TPWK (even with some backdoor draws) with 7 players, your standard line should be to check-fold no matter if you have $500 or $1300. Wait for a better spot.

Garland

cpk · #9 08-14-2006, 05:40 PM

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BTW, what was the turn card? and the river card?

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Oops, my bad...turn and river were offsuit 2 and J. The only big draw coming in is QT.

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$716 in pot, $250 to call. Tough spot to be in. You cannot call that. Would he bet A9 or QQ like that? Could that be a stone cold 3 St. bluff? w/o many draws on board wouldn't it have to be?

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Yep. But keep reading.

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You mentioned that he had been caught 3 times in the last hour or so. Were they all busted draws?

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Nope. Complete air (well except for the bottom pair, but he obviously was not value betting).

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How does he perceive you? Have you been laying down a lot. Making big calls?

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My check-calling was definitely out of place. In fact, I had not check-called even once in several hours. So maybe he knew I was trying to pick him off.

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W/o more info, I think he has >KQ, or a set more often than 3/4 and you do not have odds to call. That's a large bet to make in position against a likely made hand, but not so big that it is trying to get a real good hand to fold. It looks like you have KJ. It looks like a value bet to me.

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Yeah, ugh. I have to have the best hand about 35% to make that call good. I think you have to consider, though, that he may be value betting a worse King (he's certainly prone to playing them even at UTG+2). But then the other problem is maybe he outdrew me.

I spent about 45 seconds pondering what to do. I attempted to convert all this data into % at the time, and I failed at it. I assigned 30% to a stone bluff, but that may have been too high. I am not sure, though--but he does like to bluff a lot. This is still not enough for a call, though. Then I thought him capable of having a worse K and V-betting a lower pair. So I called.

But later I realized I failed to consider that his river bet was larger than standard, so I think I may have made a mistake. But that's OK, we all make them--what's important to me is that I just didn't fundamentally screw up the hand.

PS: You seem familiar with the game at Tulalip, so maybe I should just tell you that it was an older guy named Barney. Maybe that would make this whole thing easier. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

cpk · #10 08-14-2006, 05:48 PM

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When you flop TPWK (even with some backdoor draws) with 7 players, your standard line should be to check-fold no matter if you have $500 or $1300.

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That is my standard line. If I didn't know that, I'd be broke already.

This table is loose-passive preflop. 5 to 7-handed pots are standard. Yet this guy consistently bluffs into them. Few people in the game seem to be adjusting to this, even though this guy seems to be locally notorious for being crazy.

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Wait for a better spot.

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I would certainly prefer a better spot, but this guy has donked off $1200 in less than an hour, so there may not be one.

But, then again, I'm willing to listen to the wisdom of the more experienced. If you're really going to say that picking off a nutjob with TPWK is just always always always wrong, then I'll consider that.