200BB to start, to lead or c/r the turn...

anduril · #1 08-14-2006, 10:18 AM

villain is unknown in this one. I'm still not convinced either way if a turn lead or c/r is better.

5-10NL fr. villain has $1947, I cover.

EMP opens to $25, I call in the CO with 33, villain calls on the button. Both blinds fold.

K 9 3r.($87) EMP checks, I bet $45, villain calls. EMP folds.

turn K.($177) I lead or c/r? Rest of the hand coming when I get some responses.

BluffTHIS! · #2 08-14-2006, 10:34 AM

Lead. There are no draws on the board for you to have bet or him to have called with. You want to generate as big a pot as possible and not let him check behind. So lead and hope to get raised. If you are just called and another broadway card doesn't come on the river then bet biggish again, or smaller if a broadway comes. If he has 99 or spikes his kicker on the river, that's the way it goes.

NT! · #3 08-14-2006, 10:38 AM

Dry board, what did he call with that doesn't bet when checked to? On the other hand, if he called with something like AA or KT, check-raising lets him off the hook if he knows how to fold.

Betting makes the hand simpler, although if you are raised you have an interesting decision. vs. an unknown do you try shove now, thinking he won't have 99/k9 as often as AK/KQ/KJ/KT? Or is it prudent to just call and re-eval river vs an unknown? Against someone I knew to be halfway decent I am not bet/shoving this turn after his flop smooth call.

I think I like a bet, hoping to encourage a stubborn call from some big pairs, planning to go into call-down if raised.

NT

Ghazban · #4 08-14-2006, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I like a bet, hoping to encourage a stubborn call from some big pairs, planning to go into call-down if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

What big pairs do you see button having that overcalled a tiny raise preflop instead of reraising?

quickfetus · #5 08-14-2006, 10:45 AM

Lead; CR looks incredibly fishy to any non-idiot, no?

NT! · #6 08-14-2006, 11:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I like a bet, hoping to encourage a stubborn call from some big pairs, planning to go into call-down if raised.

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What big pairs do you see button having that overcalled a tiny raise preflop instead of reraising?

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Obviously if he has these pairs he is playing them pretty badly, which is part of why I would hope for a stubborn call in those instances. Against someone who I know doesn't suck I would not expect to see any pairs other than MAYBE 99 here.

If we get any action I am much more inclined to think he has KJ, KQ, etc, or else he just turned a boat. Just trying to account for a few more possibilities vs. an unknown.

NT

anduril · #7 08-14-2006, 11:53 AM

OK, it seems the consensus is to lead the turn. My thought was that he wouldn't peel again with a hand like QJ, but would bet a very high percentage of the time. When I c/r I don't see him folding a King, maybe I'm wrong. If I go lead/lead/lead though he can just call/call/call with KQ, so I think I get more money in with a c/r.

So obviously I c/r to $265, he doesn't take long to make it $600 to go. Now what?

NT! · #8 08-14-2006, 11:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, it seems the consensus is to lead the turn. My thought was that he wouldn't peel again with a hand like QJ, but would bet a very high percentage of the time. When I c/r I don't see him folding a King, maybe I'm wrong. If I go lead/lead/lead though he can just call/call/call with KQ, so I think I get more money in with a c/r.

So obviously I c/r to $265, he doesn't take long to make it $600 to go. Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a scary f'in threebet, I would just call.

EDIT: And this is kinda why I like a lead. Check-raising blows him off worse hands, wins only a little more money from naked Ks and gets a lot of money in the pot when you're losing. If you c/r and are just called, there are a lot of bad river cards and I don't think you can make that big of a value bet.

NT

anduril · #9 08-14-2006, 12:19 PM

NT,

so if I led the turn for $70, and he raised to $265, wouldn't I have him right where I want him and drop a load in his face with pot 3-bet? Now how much money goes in the pot when I'm losing?

NT! · #10 08-14-2006, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
NT,

so if I led the turn for $70, and he raised to $265, wouldn't I have him right where I want him and drop a load in his face with pot 3-bet? Now how much money goes in the pot when I'm losing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think you should settle down before you go dropping any loads on anybody, first of all. Sheesh.

I think if he has a good K he is more likely to raise your turn lead and call a 3-bet than he is to 3-bet your c/r. Even if it's fishy, the c/r shows strength and most average players are not three-betting it too often. Also, if he does 3-bet you with a naked K, what is your river play? I hate a river lead in that spot. He will probably check behind unless he boats up, so you will end up winning about the same as if he had just called the c/r and you value bet the river, but are losing more when you are behind.

You are talking about playing as if you have the nuts, which you don't. I'm guessing you probably stacked KJ or something from the tone of your posts but I don't agree with how you played the hand.

NT