Am I computing this right? (reraise all in EV)

[Shroomy]

Hi, I am working on an app that, among other things, is computing the value of reraising all in in NL.

I would greatly appreciate if anyone could give me feedback if i am missing anything. (it wouldn't be the first time)

The scenario is that a person has raised, you can estimate the range of hands that he raised with, and the range of hands that he would call an all in reraise with.

I am looking for the final EV but broke down things as much as seemed reasonable.

Thanks in advance!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Villain would bet with top 12.00 % of hands
Villain will call your all in re raise with top 5.00 % of hands

The villain has bet $200.00
The villain has $1,000.00 remaining after the bet
You have $800.00
Your cards are KD KC (actual cards are not important, but I inclded them anyways)

Villain will fold 58.33 %
When villain folds you win $200.00
The EV of villain folding is $116.67

Villain will Call 41.67 %
When the villain calls you will win 70.99 % of the time
When the villain calls you will lose 29.01 % of the time
If villain calls and you win, you will win $1,200.00
If villain calls and you lose, you will lose $800.00

The EV of villain calling and you winning $258.25
The EV of villain calling and you losing ($96.70)

The total EV of pushing all in is $278.21

Misc....
How I got the winning and losing percent when villain isn't important (but I did take into account ties)

The fold percentage doesnt take into account the fact that you having KK, thus reducing the actual percentage of hands he would both bet and call with.

[Shroomy]

bumpty bump bump

please!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
come on the brain power in this forum makes a mensa convention look like a grade school 4H club and no one will give me their two cents [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Ill bet if I asked the +EV effect of jenifer tilly wearing a low cut dress to the table I could get 10 pages of responses including the expected gain from each cm of cleavage along with pie charts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


Maybe Ill have to repost with "Sure Fire Craps System" as the title just to get noticed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AaronBrown]

You only win $800 when you win, not $1,200. Villain has bet $200, you only have $800, so you call the $200 and raise $600. She calls, you win her $800 and get your $800 back. When you lose, you lose your $800. When she folds, you get her $200 initial bet. All these assume there is nothing in the pot before villain's first bet.

The EV of winning is $236.63. Your $258.25 is wrong, even for the $1,200 total. The total EV is $256.60.

However, this compares the EV of the reraise to folding. You could also call or make a smaller raise, and either of those options allow you to do other things later. Your result shows the reraise is better than folding, but not that it is necessarily the best action.

Another factor you have left out is that your reraise decision will affect villain's percentages for various actions.

[Shroomy]

Aaron,
Thanks! I knew I must have missed something, and thanks for the last two points. (though I am not worrying about them yet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I need to keep them in mind)


and last but not least ... I hope your book, I just ordered, is as informative as your posts.

The Poker Face of Wall Street

[AaronBrown]

Thanks for the plug.