AQs on Monotone Flop

SixForty · #1 08-09-2006, 01:20 AM

Good turn raise? Good river check?

Live 10/20 - loose/semi-aggressive, good game with average 5-6 players to the flop, seems to alternate between aggressive and passive in swings, but more often aggressive

Reads:
UTG+1 - no good read, I'd been playing with him for hours but he seemed to randomly alternate between LAGgy and TAGgy and even TAPpy at times - rather confusing!
UTG+2 - TAG, very good player, can be tricky, a regular that I play with semi-often, he's surely a long term winner in the game and I respect his play
MP2 - super LAG, but very good postflop player, he's a regular that I've played well over 100 hours with, and I know he's a long term winner in the game
BB - New to the table, no real read

I was happy with how I played this hand at the time, but it was more heat of the moment play and was wondering if anyone else had deeper insight.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls

Flop: (5 players, 10.5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (5 players, 5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+2 calls

River: (2 players, 10.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

Anyone play it differently?

sharpie · #2 08-09-2006, 02:38 AM

Why check the river?

SixForty · #3 08-09-2006, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why check the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he ever folds a better hand, and I think he hardly ever calls with a worse hand. I don't see the value in it.

XmasXmas · #4 08-09-2006, 03:32 AM

you're also not likely to be behind. i doubt he's getting that sexy w/ anything that is beating your hand. if you guys split, you guys split. maybe he has the sucker straight and is hoping you have a set. or maybe he has a set and is hoping you have some weird AA. since he hasn't given you a reason for you to believe you are behind, you should still bet the river.

also, there's something to be said about not having to show down your hand [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

SixForty · #5 08-09-2006, 03:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you're also not likely to be behind. i doubt he's getting that sexy w/ anything that is beating your hand. if you guys split, you guys split. maybe he has the sucker straight and is hoping you have a set. or maybe he has a set and is hoping you have some weird AA. since he hasn't given you a reason for you to believe you are behind, you should still bet the river.

also, there's something to be said about not having to show down your hand [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess my problem is this - any type of made hand that he had on the turn, I'm almost positive he's raising BB's lead bet. I can't see him just calling the turn with anything other than a flush draw.

On the turn:

- if he has a flush he's raising
- if he has a straight (either Q or 7) he's raising
- if he has a set, he's raising (although, I think he leads at the flop)
- if he has two pair, he's raising (again, I think he leads at the flop with any hand that has two pair on the turn.)

If he only has one pair, he doesn't get this far with it unless he has a flush draw or straight draw to go with it, in which case he's betting the flop or raising the turn. Regardless, I don't see him calling a river bet with just one pair.

I really couldn't think of any hand that he would play this way that he'd now want to call a river bet with.

sharpie · #6 08-09-2006, 04:09 AM

I don't see why he has to raise a set or 2 pair on the turn. He's most likely behind, and he has to call a 3 bet if he raises. I also don't see why he has to raise a 7 on the turn. BB's lead into 5 players on this board suggests a lot of strength.

I think one thing he's unlikely to just call with on the turn if he's good is a flush, I think he misses out on too much value.

Oracle · #7 08-09-2006, 04:24 AM

I bet this river. There's really no indication we are behind and we're missing value on everything except a flush and a bigger straight which he doesn't play this way.

James. · #8 08-09-2006, 08:44 AM

seems like a decent amount of two pair combos would payoff.

SixForty · #9 08-09-2006, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why he has to raise a set or 2 pair on the turn. He's most likely behind, and he has to call a 3 bet if he raises. I also don't see why he has to raise a 7 on the turn. BB's lead into 5 players on this board suggests a lot of strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

After the flop gets checked around, I think BB would lead into this field with a very wide range. And I know that Villain would know this too, and if he had a playable hand like that, I'm pretty sure he raises it right then.

[ QUOTE ]
I think one thing he's unlikely to just call with on the turn if he's good is a flush, I think he misses out on too much value.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, I'm pretty sure he's raising any flush on the turn as well.

SixForty · #10 08-09-2006, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a decent amount of two pair combos would payoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see him playing any two pair combo like this though. If he flopped two pair, he's leading and 3betting, even on a monotone board (unless the raise comes from a rock at the table)

If he turned two pair, that means he flopped a pair and an OESD, which is also a hand that he would lead at the flop with, and/or raise BB's turn bet.

I'll agree that he may pay off with these hands, but I just think that he doesn't have one of these hands the vast majority of the time.