Middle Set, Blockers, Backdoors, OOP

[liquid]

$2-$2 PLO

Foe: MP2, unknown, $186
Hero: B2, covers

PRE-FLOP
4 limpers (including foe) to button, who raises to $5. First blind folds, I call with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], everyone else calls except for cutoff, who folds, wtf.

FLOPPITY ($29) [2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Hero bets $20, 2 folds, foe bets $50, PFRer folds.

Hero's plan? What hand range do we assign to an unknown foe here?

[joewatch]

Villain probably has 789x. So keep betting unless the turn completes a str8.

[liquid]

Keep betting = push flop? Foe has roughly one PSB remaining.

If you call the flop, what if the turn is 3/4/7/8/9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

What if the turn is a blank [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

[joewatch]

Sorry, my mistake. I misread the hand. You should probably fold to the raise.

[BluffTHIS!]

Set him in and there will be no tough decisions on the turn/river and you get paid if the board pairs (assuming he doesn't have 66xx or 22 and makes quads).

[Runner Runner]

I think this is close between a call and a fold, (this is definitely not a raise). I think your opponent most likely has the straight in spite of your blockers. If villain raised the pot, I think I would muck, the smaller raise is tempting to call but being out of positiion will make it difficult to make any more money if the board pairs. Also, acting first makes it difficult to bluff him off the hand if a scare card hits. In position, this would be a definite call. Out of position I may still call but it would be more marginal. This is assuming he raised to $50, if he raised $50 on top of your $20....I would fold.

[Silent A]

This is a close one. There are a lot of hands that you're on the bad side of a 60/40 here, but you only need a little over 40% equity for neutral EV here. Also, because it'll be nearly impossible to be able to tell where you are on the turn you should probably push or fold.

There's $99 in the pot, and it's 30 to you. If you pot it and he calls he'll only have $5 left so effectively it'll be all-in.

Final pot : $397

It'll cost you $164 so you need 41% equity to be EV neutral.

If we put villain on a hand range like : 789*, 34**, 66**, and 5678 you will barely have enough equity to push

Random Omaha Hi Simulation Results (600,000 trials)
board: 2d5s6h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
3d3h5d5h 43.54% 253,424 15,683
789M,34LL,6678,66LL,5678,789L,66MM,66LM 56.46% 330,893 15,683

Since there's always the chance that he might fold, I guess pushing is the best (if very high variance) play.

[Runner Runner]

I really think you have to give a higher % chance that the opponent has 34, and lower % chance that he has 66 or 789. I just don't see those hands raising as often. IMO, BAD time to push against unknown opponent.

[liquid]

I think foe's most likely hand is a set or higher straight draw. Possible but less likely is a made straight or two pair (esp. 5678). A made straight seems less likely since (a) the size of foe's raise is weird; (b) I hold blockers to the straight; and (c) I hold blockers to a low run, which is the most likely xx for a foe with 34xx. The hand I'm most worried about is 66xx.

I don't like pushing the flop. I don't hate folding the flop. I think the best line is calling the flop, open-pushing any non-pairing [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] turn, and check-raising any pairing turn.

Pros:

1. Pushing non-pairing [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] earns the best fold equity vs. 66xx.
2. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gives me equity vs. a flopped or turned straight.
3. Foe is charged max if he has a straight draw.

Cons (as BluffTHIS pointed out):

1. May not get paid if the turn pairs the board.
2. May incorrectly check/fold [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn.

[wheatrich]

You have equity if he has some bare 34. I think pushing is the best play with calling and folding being a slight mistake but I don't mind any of them in this situation.

It would help so much to know if he's capable of that with 66xx lol.