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#1
08-07-2006, 09:43 PM
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nuts to the fullhouse draw...percentages?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
SB (t1094) BB (t2285) UTG (t3220) UTG+1 (t2860) MP1 (t6492) Hero (t4639) MP3 (t3530) CO (t2860) Button (t3020) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t40, MP1 calls t40, Hero calls t40, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks. Flop: (t200) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> SB folds, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks. Turn: (t200) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> MP1 bets all in t6452 Is a call correct and if I am ahead how far ahead am I? 
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#2
08-07-2006, 09:47 PM
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Re: nuts to the fullhouse draw...percentages?
All that matters is whether or not your ahead, not whether or not you're ahead A LOT. So does he have AA, A9, A8, 99, 88 often enough versus other possible hands to make a call incorrect. And without thinking much about it I'd say he's not pushing 6450 into a 200 pot with any of those hands. Now of course, a little multi-level thinking could be going on. But I'd take the gamble and call.
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#4
08-07-2006, 11:29 PM
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Re: nuts to the fullhouse draw...percentages?
To answer your question (I think you should call as fast as humanly possible), if he has just a singleton ace, he has 10 outs to beat you.
1 ace 3 8's 3 9's 3 of his kicker If you assign him Ax and knowing your own cards, he has 10 outs/44 cards left = 22.7% But again...do you really think he pushes a full house into a pot this size?
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