KQs, River bluff in large pot

henkeee · #1 08-07-2006, 03:20 PM

UTG is something like 27 VPIP and bad postflop.
MP2 has seen 100 % of his 35 hands and I'm afraid he could call with many pairs here.
CO is tight, but new at the table. He sure seems to be on OC

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets,

Hero's image is good (about 70 $ plus and showing good hands). And it only has to work one time out of 11, but are these kinds of bluffs even worth it?

tiltaholic · #2 08-07-2006, 03:23 PM

based on your reads, can you guesstimate a probability that they all fold?

henkeee · #3 08-07-2006, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
based on your reads, can you guesstimate a probability that they all fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I can't, that's why I'm asking =)

cold_cash · #4 08-07-2006, 03:23 PM

I usually avoid bluffing into three bad players.

kerowo · #5 08-07-2006, 03:26 PM

Calling stations call, especially when you don't want them to. What were you hoping to happen when you called the flop bet?

DrModern · #6 08-07-2006, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What were you hoping to happen when you called the flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

What would convince you to fold getting 18.5:1 on a call?

kerowo · #7 08-07-2006, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What were you hoping to happen when you called the flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

What would convince you to fold getting 18.5:1 on a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand it is a ginourmous pot but what are you actually hoping is going to happen? Runner runner K? Runner runner Q? Do you hope to get whichever the 3-bettor doesn't have with his A?

DrModern · #8 08-07-2006, 03:36 PM

A couple of hearts (one of them hopefully being the A), runner K or Q is dece (though not as likely to prevail). I was just wondering if you were actually thinking it might be a fold?

henkeee · #9 08-07-2006, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What were you hoping to happen when you called the flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

What would convince you to fold getting 18.5:1 on a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand it is a ginourmous pot but what are you actually hoping is going to happen? Runner runner K? Runner runner Q? Do you hope to get whichever the 3-bettor doesn't have with his A?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have folded without the BDFD and it sure felt right at the moment even though I feared a flop raise. At least CO's action would give me some information, but I guess I'm just trying to justify a questionable call. I do think I have just about the outs vs CO (JJ+, AK), but I still have the other two to worry about.

henkeee · #10 08-07-2006, 03:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I usually avoid bluffing into three bad players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two bad. I think CO will fold his "AK"