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#1
08-07-2006, 08:33 AM
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statistical Observations about the final 45
Hey folks,
because I'm extremely bored at the moment, I took a look at the 45 players left in the WSOP and their statistics in the Hendonmob Database (http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/search-all.php) Here are some numbers: Total amount won:$13,814,255 Average amount/player: $306,983 Total amount won without Cunningham, Brenes: $5,062,181 Average amnount/player without Cunningham,Brenes: $117,725 Breakdown of player in groups: $0 won: 11 players (24,4%) $0-$10k: 8 players (17,8%) $10k-$50k: 9 players (20%) $50k-$100k: 3 players (6,7%) $100k-$500k: 9 players (20%) $500k-1 mill: 2 players (4,4%) >>> 1 mill: 3 players (6,7%) Skimming through the list, I only found 7 players with more than 10 cashes in live tournaments. Sure, statistically this data is not significant in any way. However which conclusions would you draw from it? Mine are: a) For normal people the average $ amount / player is rather high. For poker players playing in a 10k buyin event, it seems rather low. b)Probably the internet players are owning again, because 40% of the remaining players havent won more than 10k in live tourneys, and only 7 players have more than 10 live cashes. I dont know however which percentage of the field were internet players from the beginning... Maybe this result is to be expected. c) The "pros" are doing ok. Thehendonmob only knows 231 players with more than $1,000,000 lifetime winnings. Even if all of them played the main event, which is impossible, because some of them are dead and others dont play anymore, they would only constitute 2,6% of the field, while now they have 6,7% of the remaining field. 
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#2
08-07-2006, 08:43 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
I want Rhett Butler to win.
I want him to at least make the final table, because I want to make people like Vince Van Patten & Gabe Kaplen say his name over and over for the next year.
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#3
08-07-2006, 10:29 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
You're looking only at the gross. I'd like to see the net.
I'd really like to see the net for Moneymaker and Raymer post-WSOP win. Since Raymer did really well last year he's likely well ahead. I know in my bones that Moneymaker is stuck.
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#4
08-07-2006, 10:41 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking only at the gross. I'd like to see the net. I'd really like to see the net for Moneymaker and Raymer post-WSOP win. Since Raymer did really well last year he's likely well ahead. I know in my bones that Moneymaker is stuck. [/ QUOTE ] The OP has nothing to do with past champions' BRs. And in defense of Moneymaker: Raymer's cash in last year's ME was for something along the lines of $300k. If I'm not mistaken, Moneymaker's cash for finishing 2nd in the 2004 Bay 101 Shooting Stars Event was for similar money (that is, if Raymer is 'well-ahead' only because of his cash in the 2005 WSOP ME, then surely Moneymaker's 2nd in the Bay 101 should also put him 'well-ahead', using your standard). Lastly, I believe Moneymaker has divorced his wife between his ME win and now, which means he probably took a pretty big BR hit away from the tables.
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#6
08-07-2006, 11:10 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
[ QUOTE ]
b)Probably the internet players are owning again, because 40% of the remaining players havent won more than 10k in live tourneys, and only 7 players have more than 10 live cashes. I dont know however which percentage of the field were internet players from the beginning... Maybe this result is to be expected. [/ QUOTE ] PokerStars, ~1,650 PartyPoker 1,023 Full Tilt 423 Bodog 396 Paradise 298 Ultimate Bet 230 Pacific ~150 Ladbrokes 95 Or about 4250, which is half (50%) of the field. So owning might not be correct. You would expect at least 50% in the final 45 assuming an equal opportunity for all. Online ownage would require at least 66% (my own personal ownage qualification) of the final 45.
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#7
08-07-2006, 11:32 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
[ QUOTE ]
Care to list the top 10 in total earnings out of the 45? [/ QUOTE ] Top 10: 1. Cunningham $4,650,578 2. Brenes $4,101,496 3. Lisandro $1,286,838 4. Friedman $698,734 5. Schmiech $574,797 6. Thuritz $472,178 7. O'Donnell $432,839 8. Wasicka $237,961 9. Betts $217,849 10. Chang $207,100
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#8
08-07-2006, 11:41 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars, ~1,650 PartyPoker 1,023 Full Tilt 423 Bodog 396 Paradise 298 Ultimate Bet 230 Pacific ~150 Ladbrokes 95 Or about 4250, which is half (50%) of the field. So owning might not be correct. You would expect at least 50% in the final 45 assuming an equal opportunity for all. Online ownage would require at least 66% (my own personal ownage qualification) of the final 45. [/ QUOTE ] Thx, didnt know about these numbers. It's hard to really tell how good/bad the online players did, because some of the top online players probably did buy in directly, instead of bothering with satellits. Also how many players are left is not as important as which fraction has how many chips etc... Ignoring all statistical insignificance, I would now say the online players were quite average.
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#9
08-07-2006, 11:42 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] b)Probably the internet players are owning again, because 40% of the remaining players havent won more than 10k in live tourneys, and only 7 players have more than 10 live cashes. I dont know however which percentage of the field were internet players from the beginning... Maybe this result is to be expected. [/ QUOTE ] PokerStars, ~1,650 PartyPoker 1,023 Full Tilt 423 Bodog 396 Paradise 298 Ultimate Bet 230 Pacific ~150 Ladbrokes 95 Or about 4250, which is half (50%) of the field. So owning might not be correct. You would expect at least 50% in the final 45 assuming an equal opportunity for all. Online ownage would require at least 66% (my own personal ownage qualification) of the final 45. [/ QUOTE ] According to CP, there is only one Full Tilt qualifier left in the fields, and he is way short stacked, so this is a pretty poor performance from the big sponsor.
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#10
08-07-2006, 11:48 AM
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Re: statistical Observations about the final 45
[ QUOTE ]
According to CP, there is only one Full Tilt qualifier left in the fields, and he is way short stacked, so this is a pretty poor performance from the big sponsor. [/ QUOTE ] FTP had about 1 out of 20 players in the ME, so they should have about 2 left right now, which of course isn't that far off from reality.
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