Bunch of weak draws on flop, huge pot

Ampelmann · #1 08-06-2006, 01:48 PM

The guy who limp/caps is a lag who might do this for fun, nothing on MP1, the rest are rather loose.

PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 (poster) calls, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (26.60 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises

Thoughts?

I have overs, a gutshot and a BDFD for together around 8 outs. My idea was to (1) protect my overcard outs (someone with AK or AJ might make a mistake by folding, even loose players fold overs to a raise sometimes) and (2) if everyone calls this might even be for value.

Or should I rather call? The pot is so big that this raise actually doesn't protect since everyone with overs is getting sufficient odds to call.

Hielko · #2 08-06-2006, 02:03 PM

Very bad idea. Preflop has been CAPPED.

Paxosmotic · #3 08-06-2006, 02:09 PM

Your overs are no good, you're at 5.5 outs. The raise isn't for protection (anyone with so much as an ace is correct to call), it's for value. Absolutely raise this. You also have a good shot at settling everyone down and seeing a cheaper river if you whiff on a heart on the turn.

dchz · #4 08-06-2006, 02:18 PM

i really don't think this is a bad idea, i think this goes along the lines of playing aggressively in big pots, good play IMO, even though your outs are tainted, this play isn't bad

Aasi · #5 08-06-2006, 02:49 PM

*crunch*

I'm not a big fan of raising to buy outs. In order to succeed, some very specific conditions have to be just right:
-your opponent has to have AJ or AK, other hands that dominate you are not folding
-that opponents has to fold. Given the size of the pot, this is not very likely
-you have to catch K or J on the turn or on the river
-you have to win this pot with your measly one pair, and not lose to two pair, set, straight, flush or full house.

If you multiply all these probabilities, you are going to get a very, very small number. I do not think it is worth to use one bet buy so small a fraction of the pot, even if the pot is huge.

As for raising for value, you are about 4:1 to make your hand by the river. If everyone will call (as they will, if they have any piece of the flop), a raise may marginally be for value.

Frankly, I do not think calling or raising will make much difference in this huge pot. I'd just hit the call button until the river.

Xhad · #6 08-06-2006, 02:52 PM

No one will fold any reasonable draw, and you're not getting a free card that often either. Peel and turn a Q.

feroder_zb · #7 08-06-2006, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i really don't think this is a bad idea, i think this goes along the lines of playing aggressively in big pots, good play IMO, even though your outs are tainted, this play isn't bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Read SSHE chapter on "When a raise will not protect your hand" extremely large pots. By raising you're offering better than 15 to 1 on a call - even overcards will make this call and only weak-tight players are going to make the mistake of folding their 3+ outer. Thus a raise DOES NOT protect Hero's hand. I'd like to add that Hero probably isn't buying any outs as in this multiway capped pot his overcard outs are probably already dominated. Hero's draws are weak but w/ 5.5 outs (excluding overcards) its worth a flop peel getting incredibly good odds.

kumarshah · #8 08-06-2006, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The guy who limp/caps is a lag who might do this for fun, nothing on MP1, the rest are rather loose.

PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 (poster) calls, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (26.60 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises

Thoughts?

I have overs, a gutshot and a BDFD for together around 8 outs. My idea was to (1) protect my overcard outs (someone with AK or AJ might make a mistake by folding, even loose players fold overs to a raise sometimes) and (2) if everyone calls this might even be for value.

Or should I rather call? The pot is so big that this raise actually doesn't protect since everyone with overs is getting sufficient odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to be forgetting the part where you are 3-bet.

whoisthedrizzle · #9 08-06-2006, 03:15 PM

*grunch*

Seems like there's way too much money in there to really protect your hand by raising here. You're probably better off just calling and seeing a turn as cheaply as possible.

kerowo · #10 08-06-2006, 03:58 PM

Seems a little spewtastic without better reads on the LRR and button. There is very little chance you are going to win this UI so you want to see a show down cheaply.