Can I value bet this river?

[A_K]

I had only played about 20 hands against villain up to this point. He seemed to be a typical loose passive fish. I did notice a couple of times when he called down light (e.g. AQ on a board that pretty clearly helped someone else), but otherwise he seemed pretty typical.

Is this a wise value bet on the river? If one of these donkeys hit a flush on the river, then it seems likely they would likely lead out, since they can't count on me betting the scare card. And it is hard to imagine what these guys are calling down with if not a flush draw (or maybe something like J9 or AJ with a club?)

If we bet here, are we in a bet/fold situation?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero . . .</font>

[tyler_cracker]

easy bet/call.

[Smurph64]

*grunch*

who can call the river bet and not beat you? Two small pairs? AJ beats you, two clubs beat you, J9 beats you. Lots of people call a preflop raise with those combinations a lot more than someone with A7 or AT.

I would consider checking it down. I don't think there is any value in the raise.

[milesdyson]

smurph, any 5/7/T/K/Q calls you on the river.

[Smurph64]

when there are two calling stations in a hand with two different draws the law of motion dictates one of them will have a connection with that Q river card.

My river play is not my strongest suit here but with that card my bet produces two folds or a check raise every time.

[Paxosmotic]

I don't know, can you?!? Lollerz!

Definitely a bet/call, you're missing value by routinely checking this down.

[ QUOTE ]
I would consider checking it down. I don't think there is any value in the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
You misread it, but it's worth stating. I am raising this river exactly never.

[drzen]

Bet without hesitation. It's true that some very passive villains won't bet a small flush but they are way, way outnumbered in my limited experience by those who will call all the way with any pair.

[badplayer]

Check. I don't see worse hands calling often enough to make this bet profitable.

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]
Check. I don't see worse hands calling often enough to make this bet profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't see KT, KQ, KJ calling? TT, 55, 77?? We have top set man. Easy bet.

[kav]

bet/call.