Once the Bubble Bursts

[nomadtla]

Predictions on how fast the next 100 or so players will drop after player 874 goes busto.

[bravos1]

Probably quite a while, unfortunately. I think there will be many bubble watching nits, it will be redonkulous!

[AngusThermopyle]

From #873:
To 1.5X your payout, you have to make it to #567 (Fri/Sat)
To double your payout, you have to make it to #379. (Sat)
To triple your payout, you have to make it to #252. (Sun)

Since the next 370 or so places pay:
567 - 505 $22,266
621 - 568 $20,617
666 - 622 $19,050
720 - 667 $17,730
774 - 721 $16,493
819 - 775 $15,504
873 - 820 $14,597

Think a lot of people will figure why come back with a short stack on Sat with such a flat structure. Gamble time.

[bravos1]

Meh.. your right.. I miss read the post and was thinking pre-poppage.

[Dynasty]

The key to getting a big stack tomorrow won't be stealing blinds before the bubble. It will be being dealt big hand just after the bubble.

Reread Card Player's log from last year's WSOP. After very tight play before the bubble, there was an insane run of eliminations which lasted hours.

Day 3 started with 569 players with 560 getting paid. Cards were in the air at 12:42pm. The bubble burst on Hand #13 of the day at 2:19pm. So, 9 players were eliminated in 13 hands over 1 hour and 37 minutes.

Just 19 minutes later, 10 more players been eliminated. This includes time used for people to celebrate cashing and for the TDs to put time back on the tournament clock.

30 minutes after the bubble burst, the field was down to 534 players.

42 minutes afterwards, the field was just 519 players.

54 minutes afterwards, the next payout bubble was reached when the field was reduced to 501 players. That means 59 players were eliminated within in hour of the cash bubble.

By 3:30 (1 hour, 11 minutes later), the field was down to 477 players. At 4:22, the field was at 440 players. At 5:26, 380 players remained.

[Dynasty]

The bubble is about to burst.

I think we'll see the same rush as last year afterwards.

[Quicksilvre]

Let's see then...that means in the 3 1/2 hours after the bubble burst last year, a third of the remaining players were knocked out. It's 4:30 now; presuming the bubble bursts in a few minutes they'll be under 700 (and maybe 600) by dinner.

[AngusThermopyle]

Hope the cage people are prepared.

[Kevmath]

Amount of time it'll take until we get the "I cashed and didn't get paid in the main event" thread?

[ligastar]

[ QUOTE ]
The key to getting a big stack tomorrow won't be stealing blinds before the bubble. It will be being dealt big hand just after the bubble.

Reread Card Player's log from last year's WSOP. After very tight play before the bubble, there was an insane run of eliminations which lasted hours.

Day 3 started with 569 players with 560 getting paid. Cards were in the air at 12:42pm. The bubble burst on Hand #13 of the day at 2:19pm. So, 9 players were eliminated in 13 hands over 1 hour and 37 minutes.

Just 19 minutes later, 10 more players been eliminated. This includes time used for people to celebrate cashing and for the TDs to put time back on the tournament clock.

30 minutes after the bubble burst, the field was down to 534 players.

42 minutes afterwards, the field was just 519 players.

54 minutes afterwards, the next payout bubble was reached when the field was reduced to 501 players. That means 59 players were eliminated within in hour of the cash bubble.

By 3:30 (1 hour, 11 minutes later), the field was down to 477 players. At 4:22, the field was at 440 players. At 5:26, 380 players remained.

[/ QUOTE ]



Great email.

One of the keys to making a ME FT must be having much better than average hands during this 2 to 2 1/2 hour span after the money bubble bursts (and having a high percentage of those big favorite hands not getting cracked).