Interpreting the Turn Push

[Big Dave D]

A bit of background, Foe seems ok but not great - PT stats over 160 hands 29/7/2.3. However he did go on a little when I moved in on the flop with a nut flush draw (AQs) vs his KK.

As further insight, he played this hand a little odd, just calling my raise preflop from the SB (even though we had a limper) then minicheck raised my continuation bet on the 3 babies, two suited flop. So he may still be a little steamy after this, although I dont know him well enough to guage his tilt factor. Then we played this hand:

Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: A (US$722 in chips)
Seat 2: Foe (US$982 in chips)
Seat 3: B (US$996 in chips)
Seat 4: C (US$1000 in chips)
Seat 5: D (US$470 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (US$3061.25 in chips)
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [Kh Ks]
1 folds, Hero raises to US$30, 1 folds, Foe calls US$30, 2 folds

----- FLOP ----- [Ac Kd Qh]
Hero bets US$50
Foe raises to US$100
Hero calls US$50

----- TURN ----- [Ac Kd Qh][9h]
Hero checks
Foe bets US$852 and is all-in

The pot is $275 on the turn.

Hero should?

[Yeti]

cmon man.

[flawless_victory]

well, call!

[Big Dave D]

Well obviously, and that's what I did.

But it also struck me that in these stakes games, what does the turn overbet *actually* mean, in the hands of an ok player as opposed to a looney tune. IMO, it seems to mean "I have a hand ranging from v good to the nuts, and FUD has caused me to go allin as I am not clear exactly how to play it." If this view is true, then situations like this maybe need a little more thought than my insta call?

gl

dd

[gergery]

I don't understand....what were your other two cards?

-g

[Lucky]

hes got AA, QQ, AK, AQ, 99, JT; whatever, doesnt matter, dont waste brainpower, just call.

[BluffTHIS!]

Dave, you are either way ahead or way behind here, instead of the dreaded small fav or big dog situation. With some players, his min checkraise could be an attempt to see where he stood with only something like AT/QQ or an attempt to marry you to your hand and induce a reraise when he did in fact flop the nuts. So his turn push is either trying to run you off a better hand or getting you to call a monster. And the only non-nut hand that has you buried is AA, which seems unlikely. So I would fold against a total rock possibly, but call all other players including this one.

[Big Dave D]

Bluff,

Of course I called, and didnt hesitate for a second. But then afterwards it struck me that the bet is so big, that if I was sure-ish that he had JT or AA, then it would be a surprising pass. BTW, unless he has some insight into my play and/or can get into some levels of thinking here, I think this is a terrible bet if he has the nuts.

Anyway I ran some numbers, and if he has the JT about 70% of the time then its zero EV. And much worse if you start factoring in the slim chance of AA.

gl

dd

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a terrible bet if he has the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're really considering laying down second set to his push, it's a great bet with a variety of hands.

[Big Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I called, and didnt hesitate for a second.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt say it was a bad bet with a range of hands, just a bad bet with the nuts. Unless like I said he knows how I play but he hasnt played me enough to know this. And considering how I played the flop, it doesnt even look like I have a hand even a fraction as strong as this.

gl

dd