Turn semi-bluff gets re-raised!

[Rocco]

MP - Hero(33000)
CO(22000)
BB(15000)

I've been quite active lately due to a run of good cards. Have shown some of the in all-in situations and they've been rock solid cards like AA, AK, and QQ. CO seems aggressive and semi-loose...

It's a Party $5-rebuy with ~170 players left (money at 100) and average stack is around 20000...

Action (Blinds 500/1000):
Folded to me and I make it 3000 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO and BB calls.

(Pot: 9800)
Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I check (mistake?) and CO checks...

(Pot: 9800)
Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero bets 5700, CO goes all-in for the rest of his ~18000... BB folds... What to do? I have flush draw, straight draw and two over-cards. I might be drawing dead to a nut flush, but would he really go all-in with a made flush here? My overcards is probably not winning outs. Could he also be making a semi-bluff with the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? Call or fold?

[Mcot]

I wouldnt have checked the flop. You need to make a raise t find out where your at in the hand. Call likely means es chasing a flush, and then you can use that information to lead out on the turn.

In your spot I would fold and be done with the hand. Your probebley alredy facing a made flush your getting 2 to 1 odds but I have a feeling your more than a 2 to 1 dog at this point with no made pair a meaningless open ended and the second nut flush draw.

If your all in and the river is a blank all you have is king high.

[The Prawn]

You should have bet the flop that's 4sure... but once the all in bet is made, it's big enough that you CAN get away from it. You have to look at, what are you actually beating here? You said he;s (loose-passive?) or was it aggressive? either way your not beating a pair and certainly haven't got the pot odds to call to make your flush. And if you do hit it, one of his likely holdings is A-10os with the ace of diamonds.

Your can only b eat a complete bluff.... FOLD!

And was this a cash game or tournament? Either way the decision is exactly the same.

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have bet the flop that's 4sure... but once the all in bet is made, it's big enough that you CAN get away from it. You have to look at, what are you actually beating here? You said he;s (loose-passive?) or was it aggressive? either way your not beating a pair and certainly haven't got the pot odds to call to make your flush. And if you do hit it, one of his likely holdings is A-10os with the ace of diamonds.

Your can only b eat a complete bluff.... FOLD!

And was this a cash game or tournament? Either way the decision is exactly the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure have odds to call IF I can count my outs as clean, the question is if I can. Even if I take away some outs, I still have odds to call. My pot odds are almost 3 to 1 here (calling 12300 to win 33500). Let's look at some scenarios.

1. CO has AT (not the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) - I have 20 outs (three 7:s, three Q:s, two J:s, three K:s and diamonds... 1.3 to 1)

2. CO has two pair - I have 15 outs (2.1 to 1)

3. CO has AT (or any card w A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as kicker) - I have 11 outs (3.2 to 1).

4. CO has made a straight - I have 12 outs (Q:s gives me a higher straight... 2.8 to 1)

5. CO has made a flush - I'm either drawing dead or have 7 outs (5.6 to 1)

Question is which of the above holdings I can put him on and how likely each holding is? In case 1 and 2, I definitely have odds to call. In case 3 and 4 it's close and in case 5 I don't have odds... What do people do here? Take a gamble? If I lose I'm down to 9000 in chips and an M of 6...

[runout_mick]

We have oesd to the nuts, a 4 flush to 2nd nuts, and 2 overcards.

What's the problem? If we're behind it's not by much...

[ErnieSIrwin]

The problem here started first with playing meh cards. KJ isn't great. You have a little advantage that you've been playing great cards -- but this is ALSO something you have to keep in mind.

You've been showing SOLID hands that you're winning with. Now you're raising, and people are calling. They most likely have good cards as well. If they thought you had junk, they would steal from you. So they think their cards are better than yours.

After the flop, you need to bet out for several reasons. 1: Using the information above, the flop most likely missed (pocket pair might have hit, but most likely you're dealing with overcards). You could take the pot down right here, unless they are going after their flush draw.

Either way, you get valuable information that makes the other streets easier.

I think you have to fold here from how you played. Right now all you have is K high. Even if he is semibluffing with A high, you're still beat. Fold here, learn from your preflop and post flop mistake, beat them next time.

-Ernie S. Irwin

[Rocco]

Why is open-raising with KJ a mistake? Do you always fold KJ here? I fold too if I find the players behind me too aggressive, but if I suspect they will fold or if a weak player might call, I go ahead and raise. I do agree with you that I should've bet out on the flop.

[seke2]

I don't think he's betting a made nut flush. There's not enough chance you'd call and he wants your money if that's the case. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like AT, with or without the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] though. Not sure what other hands play this line other than something like a flopped/turned set or maybe something like JT with the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or some sort of two pair that made a speculative preflop call, like T9. I don't think your opponent wants to see the river, I think he's worried about the flush draw.

I'd have bet the flop to see where you stood. You can afford to cbet here because your opponents are both moderately shorter stacks, and it's likely that if they come back over you, they have you killed.

On this turn, I think you have to call. There's enough chance that he's just made top pair or he's got something you can beat if you make your flush or straight. You have to call about 12k into a pot of 33.5k. I don't think there's much chance that Villain is bluffing, but unless he's making a weird move with a made nut flush, you've likely got enough outs to validate those pot odds. And worst case, if you lose, you aren't hopelessly short-stacked either.

As far as open-raising KJo here, I don't mind it. It's about the minimum hand I'd raise from MP, but at this stage of the tournament, I think it's fine.