3 street bluff?

[duckman]

Villain is LPP with a went to showdown % =30% over 30 hands
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP calls.

Turn: (2.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>
Do I fire the third barrel or give up?
Anybody not complete with 76o here?

[econophile]

i think the A is a bad card to continue your bluff. also, don't trust WTSD too much over 30 hands.

[allaboutmyfetti]

Easy c/f for me. Pot is only 4.5 BB and in my experience villian will either (1) have an ace or (2) call with a hand that beats us too many times to make the river bet profitable.

[Scary_Tiger]

I like it. But I wouldn't have bet the turn versus most LPP.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
call with a hand that beats us too many times to make the river bet profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean better than 7-high?

Seriously, you need a real read to try pure bluffs against opponents at this level. 30 hands is such a laughable sample for WtSD (even more so than every other stat) that I don't know why you included it other than an attempt to justify your poor play.

[allaboutmyfetti]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call with a hand that beats us too many times to make the river bet profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean better than 7-high?

Seriously, you need a real read to try pure bluffs against opponents at this level. 30 hands is such a laughable sample for WtSD (even more so than every other stat) that I don't know why you included it other than an attempt to justify your poor play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh ... yeah. I shoulda just said "villian will call too many times to make this profitable".

[duckman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call with a hand that beats us too many times to make the river bet profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean better than 7-high?

Seriously, you need a real read to try pure bluffs against opponents at this level. 30 hands is such a laughable sample for WtSD (even more so than every other stat) that I don't know why you included it other than an attempt to justify your poor play.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands does it take for went to showdown to converge?
I guess what your saying is that LPP doesn't miss the board with K or Q high often enough to warrant a bet here, ie LPP called down with something this far and doesn't have KJ or some other not hit combo enough to warrant a bluff attempt at the river?.

If that's the case should I have just taken the free card on the turn?

[Erik W]

Easy bet.

Don't bet turn.
Any spade will call there anyway.