NL50 - AK, semibluffing all-in on turn

[El Ninho]

Ok, so just about how smart/stupid is this turn semibluff? I have some history with villain in this hand. He is playing a somewhat tight preflop game but has become increasingly erratic postflop. Im playing at 4 tables and he is at every one of them. I have pushed him out of some big pots, and when he finally decided to stand up with marginal overpairs I happended to have a set on both occassions.

I actually think he is a little scared to play me right now, but meanwhile he has became increasingly suspicious, whining about being runned over in the chat. He seem to have catched on to the fact that my c-bets is usually just that, so he has floated me a couple of hands also to try and take the pot on the turn.

In this hand I figured him for a decent pocket pair and I decided to try check-raising the flop and taking it down instead of having him calling me or raising my bet. Well my plan really didn't work out that well, but still putting him on a medium-sized pair, like 8's, 9's or 10,s I decide to make my stand on the turn.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
hero: $49.25
UTG+1: $47.80
MP1: $35.80
MP2: $113.15
MP3: $72.45
CO: $81.20
Button: $5.75
SB: $57.70
BB: $68.35

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.75, 2 players)
hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $12</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($28.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero is all-in $35.25</font>.

[DanIsBluffin]

I can't see the overbet folding enough hands that are beating you. Sounds like he wants to make a stand against you and even 88 might be enough for him. Also take into consideration that 56 and the flush draw made it on the turn.

Personally I c/c a reasonable turn bet, c/c the river if an A or a K hits, push if a spade comes and fold anything else.

Then again, I hate going broke with ace high.

[derosnec]

What hand checkraises a flop with two spades and then pushes turn when 3rd spade arrives? 77 doesn't make sense. Neither does a flush draw. So, I think the turn bluff isn't very convincing.

[keikiwai]

You will get called by any piece of the board and all pocket pairs.

Also, what do you bet call on a paired 2 tone board????
1) Trips
2) A flush draw
3) Occasionally the one pair
4) A strong pocket pair

All four of these are calling a good % of the time and they all beat you, and you may have 6 outs, but villain may well have FD outs which will often counterfeit 2 of your high card outs... leaving you w/ 4 possible outs, which won't always be good anyway.

[El Ninho]

For the record, I am one of the rare breed's that do a lot of checkraising, including with draws. Should'a mentioned that to I guess. I didn't REALLY consider the flush a big factor in this hand, so I hoped he might perceive my push as a big overpair. He prolly had a semi-laggy image of me and I had done a lot of overbetting with both draws and made hands. Given my UTG-raise I thought I could represent the bigger overpair.

[El Ninho]

I see your point. My move was all about folding equity against a medium sized pair. I thought it would be a tough deal calling a push here with that kind of hand since if he is behind he will be drawing with two outs. Maybe I overestimated the folding equity.

[El Ninho]

Hehe who doensn't hate going broke with ace high [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I really didnt consider 56 an option since he had quite tight calling standards, albeit the flush is a possibility what I was looking for was folding equity against a medium pair.

[Mahatma]

I really like it because it makes you look crazy but isn't, considering how you may have 15 outs and you're getting nearly 2:1

[El Ninho]

That was my thought also. Probably having as good as 2:1 I figured that adding possible FE wold make this a +EV move. Not that sweet if he calls with say 8's or 9's almost every time tho.