Hi My Name is Frank and I butchered AA

jmxthievez · #1 08-01-2006, 04:30 AM

Villain is 35/10/0.8, pretty standard for 100 NL. Nothing spectacular

I butchered the flop. How much do I raise there? I basically sized my raise !*@)#!*@ in the worst way possible. Giving him odds to draw at a flush/straight/anything. How much should I raise this flop while attempting to preserve my stack? I have $93 if I call his raise. On the turn, a push is awful since AQ doesn't call a push. What is my line here? Bet 2/3rds pot and fold/call a push? ahhhh

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($121.81)
Hero ($113.13)
CO ($30.25)
Button ($125.59)
SB ($16.10)
BB ($101.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB raises to $16, Hero raises to $30, BB calls $14.

Turn: ($68.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero calls $79.13 (All-In), BB calls $67.75 (All-In).

River: ($215.38) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $215.38

gimmetheloot · #2 08-01-2006, 04:33 AM

min raises make stack sizes so [censored] awkward.

45 on flop fold to push? God that sounds so bad. I dont know. I demand thanks for my god awful advice.

Ace of Spades00 · #3 08-01-2006, 04:35 AM

did u win, im confused

tannenj · #4 08-01-2006, 04:36 AM

his postflop aggression is .8? i think you can call on the flop and reevaluate, planning to fold to significant aggression on the turn/river.

in general, i mix up 1. pushing the flop over his raise and 2. calling his flop raise with the intention of getting it all in on the turn. but this guy pretty passive, you have to fear a set somewhat.

jmxthievez · #5 08-01-2006, 04:43 AM

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his postflop aggression is .8? i think you can call on the flop and reevaluate, planning to fold to significant aggression on the turn/river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you automatically go into c/c mode regardless of what falls on the turn? If he has AQ, he has just stopped us.

tubasteve · #6 08-01-2006, 04:52 AM

i would call and fold to a turn bet against a villain like this

tannenj · #7 08-01-2006, 04:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
his postflop aggression is .8? i think you can call on the flop and reevaluate, planning to fold to significant aggression on the turn/river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you automatically go into c/c mode regardless of what falls on the turn? If he has AQ, he has just stopped us.

[/ QUOTE ]

you bought pokertracker, now use it.

AJGibson · #8 08-01-2006, 04:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Giving him odds to draw at a flush/straight/anything. How much should I raise this flop while attempting to preserve my stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the amount you bet was reasonable, draws were unlikely on this board. You only have one opponent even if he had two suited cards there only about 1/4 of a chance that they are both [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s, straight draw seems even more unlikely.

You have bet enough to get rid of any weak hands, and you should have gotten rid of the draws. Your opponents miniraise on the flop suggest you might be beat already, then your raise has pretty much left you pot committed. I think the better move would have been to call the miniraise and exercise a bit of pot control.

After-all you only have an overpair, the average winning hand in hold 'em is apparently two pair, so according to this your UI rockets are below average. The only hands you beat that might call your bet on the turn are TPGK, TPTK or lower overpair, but your opponents play suggest you may be beaten already. I don't think you have enough fold equity/are ahead offen enough to make the move on the turn.

jmxthievez · #9 08-01-2006, 05:17 AM

[/ QUOTE ]
you bought pokertracker, now use it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, there might be a misunderstanding. I don't know how common this is for 2p2ers, but I post questionable hands after completing a session. So while I am playing against this guy, I may only have 50-70 hands on him vs. after I've played my session and have 300+ hands on villain. Since I am posting the hand afterwards, I use my stats after my session is complete rather than what he was showing when this hand took place.

Tannerj- if his AF was like 1 what would you do? 2?
I feel like it is a bit thin to base an entire read on one PT number. Just my 2 cents. But I really do appreciate your above advice, don't get me wrong, just pointing something out. Again, thanks for posting.

JackWilson · #10 08-01-2006, 06:18 AM

Considering the BB could be calling with nearly anything in NL:

35% - Against a set: 2 outs, 8.4% = 2.94%
15% - Against 2 pair: 5 outs, 20.3% = 3%
10% - Against a flush draw: 65% = 6.5%
10% - Against a straight draw: 68.5% = 6.85%
10% - Against a pair and a draw: 55% = 5.5%
10% - Against a pair: 79.7% = 7.97%
10% - Against a bluff: 95% = 9.5%

Pretty much best case scenario: 42.26% equity.

35% - Against a set: 2 outs, 8.4% = 2.94%
15% - Against 2 pair: 5 outs, 20.3% = 3%
15% - Against a flush draw: 65% = 9.75%
15% - Against a straight draw: 68.5% = 10.27%
10% - Against a pair and a draw: 55% = 5.5%
10% - Against a pair: 79.7% = 7.97%

Total = 39.43% equity on the flop. This is a reasonable estimate.

If we change the numbers a bit:

55% - Against a set: 2 outs, 8.4% = 4.62%
18% - Against 2 pair: 5 outs, 20.3% = 3.65%
10% - Against a flush draw: 65% = 6.5%
10% - Against a straight draw: 68.5% = 6.85%
5% - Against a pair and a draw: 55% = 2.75%
2% - Against a pair: 79.7% = 1.594%

About 26% total. This is a worst case scenario. With this scenario, I don't believe it's worth calling the flop minraise. You're getting 32.50 to 8, or 4-1 on what would be a 3-1 call with 26% pot equity. However, the reverse implied odds are nasty. If he's got the set, he's gonna make you lose the maximum, and he might give up if his draw doesn't get there on the turn.

From The Theory of Poker:
1. You're not sure where you're at.
2. You have little chance of improving to beat the hand your opponent might already have or might make.
3. A call commits you to calling future bets all the way to the end.
4. Your opponent can back off at any time.

I believe that all those conditions hold. Number 3 is debatable but what it boils down to is that if you're 55% sure your opponent has a set, you should fold to the minraise.

I think it's pretty clear that we do not want to push the flop, or even reraise. Let's see what happens when we call the flop:

35% - Against a set: 2 outs, 4.3% = 1.5%
15% - Against 2 pair: 8 outs, 17.4% = 2.61%
15% - Against a flush draw: 80.4% = 12%
15% - Against a straight draw: 82.6% = 12.39%
10% - Against a pair and a draw: 73.9% = 7.39%
10% - Against a pair: 89.1% = 8.91%

Equity = 44.8%

It doesn't look like we can push a safe card on the turn either.

Fold to the flop minraise?

I can't believe that's the right play but whatever.

DISCLAIMER: This is my attempt at analysing what looked like an interesting hand. It was as much a practise exercise for me as anything. Feel free to rip apart my analysis in a tasteful manner, pointing out any mistakes I have made. Thanks.

EDIT: Does anyone think my estimate of 35% chance of him having a set is too high? It might be interesting to run the numbers with some other estimates.