400NL bluff vs a TAG A hi flop

[EgoSlasher]

Opponent is 23/17 with a 17% w2sd,57% w$sd, and 85% cont bet after 5k hands, I don't have a lot of reliabale reads that are applicable to this situation. I know the flop raise is smallish but I was trying to make it look like a pot commiting raise with AA/AK/AQ


Is this spewing or is this a decent move?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

BB ($581.60)
Hero ($509.02)
MP ($200)
CO ($1376.47)
Button ($651.50)
SB ($308.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $6. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $42</font>, Hero calls $30.

Flop: ($100) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $70</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $200</font>.

[ArturiusX]

I prefer it on a rainbow flop, but its ok.

[FeNeF]

I probably fold PF. You're not deep enough IMO.

I like the flop raise, 99-KK are a huge chunk of his range and he will probably fold them.

[mkflsam]

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I prefer it on a rainbow flop, but its ok.

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I would expect most good, solid aggressive TAGs to flat call this flop a lot with an Ace. Unless you're calling BB's 3-betting range with weaker aces, I'm not sure why AK would ever raise here.

Do you just figure since he has a smaller pair here most of the time it doesn't really matter since he basically has to play for stacks if he wants to continue? Or do you actually expect another TAG to raise with an Ace (AK mostly) on this flop?

[GLmaestro]

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I probably fold PF. You're not deep enough IMO.

I like the flop raise, 99-KK are a huge chunk of his range and he will probably fold them.

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over $500 dollars not deep enough for set value at NL400? how deep do you want to be?

[EgoSlasher]

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I prefer it on a rainbow flop, but its ok.

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I would expect most good, solid aggressive TAGs to flat call this flop a lot with an Ace. Unless you're calling BB's 3-betting range with weaker aces, I'm not sure why AK would ever raise here.

Do you just figure since he has a smaller pair here most of the time it doesn't really matter since he basically has to play for stacks if he wants to continue? Or do you actually expect another TAG to raise with an Ace (AK mostly) on this flop?

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Yes, I was figuring he has a pp most of the time and will fold often enough for the play to show a profit. Even if the line looks weird I'm forcing him to make a ruthless call or push with TT-KK.

[StupidAcesSigh]

Would you raise this flop with AK? I wouldn't, I'd raise the turn in position. If this is your play w/ AK than this is fine, but when bluffing it is important to take the same line you would take with a real hand. Yes, KK and QQ make up alot of his range here (which is why it is so important to reraise PF with AK and AQ in 6 max), but there are alot of combos of AK as well, so in general I am folding preflop and on the flop, looking for spots that are clear cut +EV.

[mike0292]

damn I think this was me and folded KK.

[mkflsam]

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Yes, I was figuring he has a pp most of the time and will fold often enough for the play to show a profit. Even if the line looks weird I'm forcing him to make a ruthless call or push with TT-KK.

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Do you think your folding equity with a flop raise is that much higher than just calling the flop and betting the turn when checked to for $100?

You save $30 on your bluff this way and also save $130 if he continues to bet the turn.

You said yourself you really aren't representing the hand you're hoping to with a flop raise. You're just kinda hoping he doesn't have the heart to push with a weaker hand or just folds without thinking. Why not represent the hand you want to for cheaper?

I suppose you're in a world of hurt if he is capable of betting the flop and check/calling the turn and river, but if he is capable of that I'd expect him to be capable of pushing over your flop raise as well with weaker hands. Not to mention if he does call your turn bet, as long as you have a good betting frequency on the river in situations like these he can never really make a +EV decision.

[EgoSlasher]

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Yes, I was figuring he has a pp most of the time and will fold often enough for the play to show a profit. Even if the line looks weird I'm forcing him to make a ruthless call or push with TT-KK.

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Do you think your folding equity with a flop raise is that much higher than just calling the flop and betting the turn when checked to for $100?

You save $30 on your bluff this way and also save $130 if he continues to bet the turn.

You said yourself you really airen't representing the hand you're hoping to with a flop raise. You're just kinda hoping he doesn't have the heart to push with a weaker hand or just folds without thinking. Why not represent the hand you want to for cheaper?

I suppose you're in a world of hurt if he is capable of betting the flop and check/calling the turn and river, but if he is capable of that I'd expect him to be capable of pushing over your flop raise as well with weaker hands. Not to mention if he does call your turn bet, as long as you have a good betting frequency on the river in situations like these he can never really make a +EV decision.

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Thanks a lot this a really good post