5-5 live turned underboat

swolfe · #1 07-28-2006, 11:33 AM

Villain has a reputation of being a donkey, but he's played pretty decent whenever I've seen him play.

I have about $700 and Villain covers. Villain limps, a couple other limpers, I limp in with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], more limpers, blinds in.

Flop ~$35 - A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checks around

Turn ~$35 - 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

check, check, Villain bets $100, folds to me, I ???

raise or smooth call? plan for the river?

I read it as a very confident bet, not one of the flush draws. I don't think this guy is the type to slowplay trips.

capone0 · #2 07-28-2006, 11:57 AM

Raise. If he has A6, or A2 so be it. That 6 probally didn't help him and he could easily have a bigger Ace. I don't think he bets 3 x pot with A6.

swolfe · #3 07-28-2006, 12:25 PM

okay, let me be a little more clear. my read is that i'm 75% sure he flopped a full house and is overbetting with the expectation of getting action from an A. he is 100% sure that he's ahead. flopped full house - A2: 6 ways, 22: 3 ways.

If he does have a naked A (which I really wasn't feeling), then his kicker is not good (he'd raise A9+), and he very well may fold to a raise.

sourbeaver · #4 07-28-2006, 12:25 PM

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I read it as a very confident bet, not one of the flush draws. I don't think this guy is the type to slowplay trips.

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You're narrowing him down to 22, A2 then ? It looks like a missed flop C/R from Ax and come the turn, he wants the pot to get big. We beat 22, Ax and are behind AA and A2, A6. Your evaluation is that Ax is unlikely compared to A2 and 22. Obviously I can't comment on the player but I don't think I mind the pot getting big here.

edit: reading your second post, seems like you're feeling a lot of strength from him, so I say go with your feeling, call and try to get a cheap showdown, but it's unlikely he will slam the breaks on the river.

swolfe · #5 07-28-2006, 12:30 PM

meh, i don't know why i bothered posting this. you guys weren't there and there's no way i can convey my intuition and the reads i got from physical clues.

i'll just cut to the chase. i called the turn, forget what the river was. he overbet pushed the river, i called and was lucky enough to be against the only full house i beat, 22.

sourbeaver · #6 07-28-2006, 12:35 PM

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i called and was lucky enough to be against the only full house i beat, 22.

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Odds-wise, sure, A2 is more likely than 22. However, taken from a situational point of view, it would take quite the loose player to limp A2 UTG in a 10-handed game (unless it was incredibly passive).

orange · #7 07-28-2006, 12:36 PM

luckbox [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

swolfe · #8 07-28-2006, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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i called and was lucky enough to be against the only full house i beat, 22.

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Odds-wise, sure, A2 is more likely than 22. However, taken from a situational point of view, it would take quite the loose player to limp A2 UTG in a 10-handed game (unless it was incredibly passive).

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it was a fairly passive game. i think it was 8 handed at this point.

hmm, he'd definitely limp UTG with the 2 A2s. not sure about the offsuits, but he was pretty loose preflop, both in his limping range and his raising/raise calling range. so, if i discount the 4 A2o hands by 50%, it's 4:3 for A2:22.