I fold a monster draw...

Jim C · #1 07-28-2006, 02:20 AM

Hello everyone,

The villian is a tight passive player of 12/1.8. After playing this hand, I felt I should have made a blocking bet on the turn to prevent this situation.

As played, I was getting 8:5 on a call, but even if I win the rest of his money I'm only about 12:5, so the implied odds are not great. I'm about a 2:1 dog to make this hand, assuming all 15 outs are good. If he has a set, I have 13 outs and the call is a loser even if I catch and stack him. I believed this player had a very strong hand, particularly since he is passive and was called in two places on the flop.

Please comment. I feel now that I should have bet the turn. As played, do you take on this variance for what is very little overlay in the best possible scenario, and slightly -EV in the worst?

Does anyone push here? This guy is not folding, so that seems to be clearly -EV to me.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($100.20)
CO ($46.85)
Button ($102.21)
SB ($66.06)
BB ($92.80)
UTG ($170.42)
UTG+1 ($100.90)
UTG+2 ($164.20)
Hero ($154.30)
MP2 ($93.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $8, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls $8, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($29) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $50, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $79

Don Key E37 · #2 07-28-2006, 02:26 AM

You have a gutshot and a flush draw with one card to come against a very tight passive opponent who's betting the crap out of this giving you horrible odds. Easy, easy fold and probably should've just folded the flop anyway.

orange · #3 07-28-2006, 02:28 AM

WTF is with the flop?

anacrime · #4 07-28-2006, 02:31 AM

I don't play FR but I think you could raise this PF. Your hand has a lot of multiway big pot value and is prettttty well disguised if you raise it from EP.

I don't know why you called the flop, you may only have 3 outs. Seems like almost an autofold.

BTW you got outplayed by MP3. He put you on a draw and pushed you off it.

Bukem_ · #5 07-28-2006, 02:34 AM

This hand should not give you problems.

He doesn't want his 77 to get bad beat, hopefully you aren't going to be the bad player that does it.

aces_dad · #6 07-28-2006, 02:36 AM

Just fold the flop, you really only have 3 outs you're happy about here.

tubasteve · #7 07-28-2006, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You have a gutshot and a flush draw with one card to come against a very tight passive opponent who's betting the crap out of this giving you horrible odds. Easy, easy fold and probably should've just folded the flop anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's double gutted on the turn, but yeah fold flop.

AJGibson · #8 07-28-2006, 04:34 AM

I think you should have folded on the flop, MP3 and the BB obviously have something to play with and your hand has little potential.

Turn a blocking bet probably would have been the better play, checking is just asking MP3 to try and run you over.

If you get through the turn and hit the river your likely to get paid off, given the strength MP3 has shown. However you're more likely to miss your put yourself in a difficult position which could have been avoided if you played the flop properly.

Thundercat32 · #9 07-28-2006, 04:50 AM

I like the limp pf

As has been said the flop call is atrocious!!!!

On the turn you are 35% to win roughly against anything Villian has. There maybe some implied tilt odds to calling but as another poster put it, he put you on a draw and pushed you out of it. You could call just to spite him, but that wouldn't be good poker IMO, alot of tilting players don't rebuy they leave the table for good, so it's probably not worth it.

Implied tilt odds is the only way you could even phatom calling this, fairly easy fold

jjigglers · #10 07-28-2006, 04:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You could call just to spite him

[/ QUOTE ]

I admit, I do this sometimes. It's extremely satisfying.