Two streets' worth of value.

Eeegah · #1 07-28-2006, 01:38 AM

All right, whadda we got here. PFR is pretty tight with a sub-15 PFR in a 6-max game. Never limps, worst he's shown down is KJo. He'll c-bet both the flop and turn given the chance, basically an over-tight TAG.

SB is pretty loose and likes to fold a lot, but this is after only 30 hands so he could just be running bad.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero...

Cool. So what do we put more stock in, TPTK (suggesting a raise) or the flush draw (suggesting a call)? Odds are good I have the best hand, but we're talking value here and whether or not we want the PFR to stay in. I'll let this simmer for a while; after your messages I'll be riiiiight back.

Buzz-cp · #2 07-28-2006, 01:49 AM

eh call and then 3-bet if/when it comes back

DeliciousBass · #3 07-28-2006, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Odds are good I have the best hand, but we're talking value here and whether or not we want the PFR to stay in. I'll let this simmer for a while; after your messages I'll be riiiiight back.

[/ QUOTE ]

*Grunch* (in case I'm no longer first)

We call here. I like our hand and it very well could be the best. We are on a draw to a monster and at this point I don't want anyone to go away just yet.

Should our draw come in on the turn I think that we are still looking for an overcall from the PFR'er and save our raise for the river. A raise at any point prior to that is going to force him out of this pot and we would prefer that he would stick around as long as possible. However, should we blank the turn and the river I would find myself a bit lost as to the proper play should the SB lead again.

Just my opinion though, I could be wrong.

DeliciousBass · #4 07-28-2006, 01:55 AM

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eh call and then 3-bet if/when it comes back

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Okay, why? Wouldn't our three bet on the flop kill all action now and if we catch?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with this line, I'm just curious as to your thoughts behind it.

MrWookie · #5 07-28-2006, 01:59 AM

I actually think I like a raise here. I'm not sad about UTG folding KQ because I'd rather not have him calling with it correctly getting 8:1 if we just call. I'm also pretty stoked to see something like AxK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] make a loose call on the off chance UTG is a rock who can't fold his good hands postflop. If UTG has a PP, the only one we're really sad about is AA, and that's the least likely of them, given that we have an A. I think more good things happen to us if we raise, and we give our opponent the greater opportunity to make mistakes.

Buzz-cp · #6 07-28-2006, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
eh call and then 3-bet if/when it comes back

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, why? Wouldn't our three bet on the flop kill all action now and if we catch?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with this line, I'm just curious as to your thoughts behind it.

[/ QUOTE ]

we will probably get a lot of action now from an overpair, which is what a raise on this board would probably mean. Also it is suggested that SB will fold a later street anyhow. We probably have 50% equity so we should are ebbing into the overpair equity & causing SB to make mistakes.

Shillx · #7 07-28-2006, 02:15 AM

Easy raise if you had AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] instead. This one is tougher because we don't want to fold out something like AK. The downside is that we will probably win more bets by raising if we hit the flush and he has an overpair. If I had to guess, I would say that raising is better simply because there are just 2 aces (and he might not have one) and there are 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s.

Gib · #8 07-28-2006, 02:18 AM

Normally I would raise here...

Does anyone ever consider popping a safe turn?

DeliciousBass · #9 07-28-2006, 02:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
We will probably get a lot of action now from an overpair, which is what a raise on this board would probably mean. Also it is suggested that SB will fold a later street anyhow. We probably have 50% equity so we should are ebbing into the overpair equity & causing SB to make mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, question two.

If we do three bet and PFR caps and SB picks now to fold; does that suck for us or are we okay with that?

I think I understand the desire for action now given that SB is prone to folding on later streets but perhaps not right here and not even for two bets back to him. And given that he has taken a lead into a PFR perhaps it's not so much of a stretch that he'll CC the 2 here.

*My head hurts a little*

NIX · #10 07-28-2006, 02:36 AM

Does this seem plausible?

If we call, UTG will raise any overpair, so we can assume that's what he has and can go from there. Possibly 3betting if SB calls the 1 bet to him.

If we call and UTG calls behind us, he's getting 8:1. If his range is AT+, KJ+, he has an average of just over 3 outs. In that case, he's making a mistake in overalling. Is that something we can live with?

So in that case, call (or call/3bet if given the chance) and raise a safe turn?

The downside I can see to this though is that if we do turn a club, it may be an action killer.