A Cash game situation to ponder...

wiseheart · #1 07-27-2006, 06:29 PM

Flop call is probably bad, but im defently not
folding the turn with a double gutter.

As 6s 2s 6h 13212 24459 176917 0 1589 15369 57354 0.144
Ts Ad Td 2d 43803 61971 129005 10400 0 5186 57354 0.336
Qc Tc 4c Ah 45624 51966 139010 10400 10534 32030 600 0.289
7s Ac 5c 2c 4150 5710 187877 7789 6745 11578 57354 0.098
3s 7c 6c 5d 9967 39081 154506 7789 0 71880 0 0.133
PokerStars 3/6 Omaha/8 (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (15 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 25 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 has As 6s 2s 6h (Low: 8, 6, 3, 2, A | High: three of a kind, sixes).
MP2 has Ad Td 2d Ts (Low: 8, 6, 3, 2, A | High: one pair, tens).
MP3 has 4c Tc Ah Qc (Low: 8, 6, 4, 3, A | High: high card, ace).
Hero has 2c 5c Ac 7s (Low: 8, 6, 3, 2, A | High: straight, nine high).
SB has 6c 7c 3s 5d (Low: 8, 7, 6, 5, 3 | High: straight, nine high).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.41 BB. SB wins 6.25 BB. UTG+2 wins 4.16 BB. MP2 wins 4.16 BB.

JMAnon · #2 07-27-2006, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop call is probably bad

[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise for value on the flop with your hand and that many players.

vingte · #3 07-27-2006, 08:19 PM

OMG, there are players like MP3 and SB at Stars 3/6 ?

wiseheart · #4 07-28-2006, 02:10 AM

Ok, considering the # of players, the flop
call is actually fine, not sure what I was
thinking, but a raise is bad there, defently.

Players are only this bad at fullring. (mostly)

Buzz · #5 07-28-2006, 05:55 AM

Wiseheart - I haven't looked at the results. I don't plan on looking at the results. I think your flop call was fine and I think your turn call was fine.

Buzz

[ QUOTE ]
defently

[/ QUOTE ]Do you mean definitely? (If so, don't answer).

cero_z · #6 07-28-2006, 07:11 AM

Hi wiseheart,

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, considering the # of players, the flop
call is actually fine, not sure what I was
thinking, but a raise is bad there, defently.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Every time I come to this forum, I'm in the fricking Twilight Zone.

Raise pre-flop. Always.
Cap the flop, if possible.
Obv cap the river.
Where was the interesting decision in this hand?

Just in the interest of not being entirely too terse, I'll say: it's especially important to raise pre-flop, if you're going to be this paranoid on the flop. You may as well pad the pot early, so some money goes in when you have an obvious equity advantage.

Edit: I finally realized why you're saying the flop is a no-raise. You're being results-oriented. Normally, you'll be in very good shape on this flop, 6 ways, on the button, with an uncounterfeitable low draw (nuts/2nd nuts) and a gs to the nut high. You just happened to be in unusually bad shape here (lol 10% equity when 17% is break-even, not exactly a nightmare regardless), and if you'd raised pre-flop, you wouldn't think about it for a second.

JMAnon · #7 07-28-2006, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, considering the # of players, the flop
call is actually fine, not sure what I was
thinking, but a raise is bad there, defently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are all the reasons to raise:

(1)Push out a second-nut low draw (this one is unlikely to happen much), in case you get counterfeited.
(2) You have a gutshot to the nuts as well as a back-door flush draw.
(3) Your low draw is semi-protected
(3) It is +EV to raise even if you could only possibly win half the pot, which will happen around 50% of the time (assuming you get quartered or counterfeited and lose 20% of the time). If you get quaretered, the raise is break even. 1.5:1 are the profit-odds you get for the raise (assuming all four call, five bets go into the pot, of which one is yours; if you win half of those bets, you win 2.5 minus the one you put in). I will take 1.5:1 on a better than 50:50 shot all day long. I would hope one of the other two players caps it. Big +EV, even playing for half the pot.
(4)You are in LP, so if you brick on the turn, you may be able to take a free card if your opponents put you on top set and check to you.

All-in-all, this is a raise. And it's not even close.

JMAnon · #8 07-28-2006, 10:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Normally, you'll be in very good shape on this flop, 6 ways, on the button, with an uncounterfeitable low draw (nuts/2nd nuts)

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a nit, but his low draw can be countefeited. Hero has A25. The board has a 36. On a board with only one wheel card, only a hand with all four of the other wheel cards is an uncounterfeitable low draw.

zizazziza · #9 07-28-2006, 11:08 AM

i like 3-betting just to see where I'm @ in the hand. also, if its called around, you can take a free card on 4th if its really [censored] and save urself some bets

Buzz · #10 07-28-2006, 07:20 PM

Josh - You've made a case for raising. Since I suggested a call was fine, please allow me to rebut.

Hero’s hand has a positive e.v. when simulated against five opponents with random cards. But here’s the thing: Hero’s opponents probably don’t have random cards. At least for the most part, my opponents sure don’t hold random cards when they call double bets on the flop in my games!

SB’s bet means little or nothing. BB’s raise could mean a lot of things, depending on BB. But it’s those three ensuing double bet calls after this flop that are troublesome to me. Are these three guys idiots with nothing? Or do they have some sort of fit with the flop? Even if one of them is an idiot, there are still the other two to consider.

And, assuming they do have a fit, what sort of fit worth calling a double bet? A set of kings? The nut diamond draw? The nut low draw with back-up?

The nut diamond draw is possible for one opponent. A set of kings is possible for one opponent. But the nut low draw with better or equal back-up is possible for three opponents!

There are too many opponents in this pot!

It looks very much like someone else also has the nut low draw, don’t you think? Maybe not, but isn’t a bit of prudence worth considering?

The best two card combination after this flop is KK.
Second best is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Third best is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is down in fourth position.

I think the ideal hand to hold here would be
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. But Hero doesn’t have even one of the two two-card combinations that are most favorable for this flop.

My second choice is
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Raising your eyebrows at my choice of 2nd nut low draw over nut low draw? Notice that in addition to 2nd nut low draw, the hand also has top set plus the nut diamond draw. Hero has neither of these very important draws.

(In case you’re wondering if I considered some other prominent possibilities,
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is better than
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but the first and second choices listed above are better than either of these).

At any rate, A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is quite a way down the list of hands Hero should like for this flop. There are too many opponents for Hero to fall in love with the nut low draw plus a second rate back-up for low plus some other low probability draws.

For example, Hero figures to make the nut club flush with an unpaired board 21/990, or only about 2%. Hero misses the nut club flush forty six times out of forty seven. It’s nice when it happens, but may be costly when it doesn’t.

At any rate SB bets, BB makes it a double bet, and then there are three double bet callers. Hero has nothing yet – just a nut low draw he probably shares with at least one opponent plus a few other second rate possibilities. What to do? What to do?

I think a very strong case can be made for Hero folding here. However, if I were Hero, I really would like to see one more card. But should Hero raise or call? Purely on the basis of the hand and the flop, a raise is in order. But when you consider the opponents, assuming they’re not purely stupid, I think a call is in order.

[ QUOTE ]
Here are all the reasons to raise:

(1)Push out a second-nut low draw (this one is unlikely to happen much), in case you get counterfeited.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think anybody who has already called two bets will fold, and I don't think you want a second nut draw to fold.
[ QUOTE ]
(2) You have a gutshot to the nuts as well as a back-door flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]A back-door nut flush draw is worth about one out. Hero makes a flush with an unpaired board 21/990, about 2%.
There are three outs (non-diamond fours) to the gutshot straight draw, but if Hero makes the straight, chances are it won't end up being the nuts. 25 other cards with the four of hearts or four of spades enable a better hand than Hero's straight. (Only 19 cards are safe). The four of clubs is not quite as bad, with 24 other cards enabling a better hand (and 20 safe cards). You want to see a four to make low, and you might scoop or get 3/4 with a four - but I don't think a four is worth a whole out. Maybe two outs for the three fours - something like that.

[ QUOTE ]
(3) Your low draw is semi-protected

[/ QUOTE ]True. But you easily could be up against A-2-4-Y here, or just A-4-X-Y or 2-4-X-Y. But the five does add value.
[ QUOTE ]
(3) It is +EV to raise even if you could only possibly win half the pot, which will happen around 50% of the time (assuming you get quartered or counterfeited and lose 20% of the time).

[/ QUOTE ]You have five bets going into the pot for your one. If you win half the pot, you win two chips for every one you risk. If you get quartered, a very distinct possibility here, you win a half chip for every chip you risk. If you win a sixth of the pot, also a very distinct possibility here, you break even. If you get eighthed (happens about one time in a thousand) you lose a quarter of a chip for every chip you invest.

But if you don't make a winning low at all - and that will happen here roughly two times out of five - you lost your bet.

If you figure that all together, considering the increased likelihood of being tied by one, two, or even three opponents, considering the betting on the flop, it's pretty close to even.

[ QUOTE ]
If you get quaretered, the raise is break even.

[/ QUOTE ]I hate to support your case for a raise, but I think you do a bit better than break even if you get quartered. However, I don't think you're giving sufficient consideration to the possibility of getting sixthed or even eighthed, considering all the opponents in the pot after this flop. And you're also not giving sufficient consideration to the possibility of not making low at all.

[ QUOTE ]
I will take 1.5:1 on a better than 50:50 shot all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]Of course! And wisely so! However, there's not just getting quartered to consider. There's also (mainly) getting nothing at all, and there's also getting sixthed or eighthed.

[ QUOTE ]
(4)You are in LP, so if you brick on the turn, you may be able to take a free card if your opponents put you on top set and check to you.

[/ QUOTE ]Good point. No rebuttal on this point.

[ QUOTE ]
All-in-all, this is a raise. And it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree. I think it's a call. I don't know about the not even close part.

Buzz