Pair+OESD vs. flop overbet. PP100 6max

[Keyser.]

Villain is 31/11 over a small sample size, no read other than that. Still push here considering my FE is probably low?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100
CO: $204.85
Hero: $103.65
SB: $159.31
BB: $392.70

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $6.5</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $22.96</font>, Hero wants to go arrrr in

[CallMePls]

Hmm this smells like an overpair...minimum re-raise + opponent overbetting flop...looks like he's got a big overpair like QQ-AA and is scared of that board, especially since he's OOP.

Assuming villian has an overpair, you are 48.6% to win here. The question is... To gambool, or not to gambool?

[antidan444]

I'd fold and wait for a better spot. I don't think your FE is good enough and while your draw is good, it isn't great.

[younghov17]

14 outs, need 38% chances of hitting to break even on a flop call, more to profit.

33 to 14 = 29%

if u push ur 47% to win, so ur risking 97 to win 111, so youd neet to win little under 47%, so a push is minorly +ev with no fold equity, the more often he folds the higher ev it is

[1C5]

Thanks for the math.

A bit +EV but playing like that will have variance through the roof!

I don't see many people folding to a push here.

[antidan444]

Let me also add I tend to be a low-variance player. That doesn't mean I won't push good draws on the flop if a good spot arises, but I probably do it far less than a lot of 2+2ers. Comes down to personal preference, really. So these spots with a draw where I think the EV is close, I usually err on the side of caution and fold.

[younghov17]

+ev is still +ev.

[Jamougha]

The push is very +EV when he has AK, which is probably a substantial part of his range.

[antidan444]

I understand that. I didn't say I knowingly turn down +EV decisions, did I? I said I sometimes fold in spots I know are close. There's a difference.

[FULL RAKE]

I can think of plenty of real world examples where I'd turn down +EV wagers. EV assumes an infinite bankroll...