Live MTT, late QQ tough decision

[AceLuby]

This was a live MTT, $500 buy in, we're in about the 13th level, I've been doing well, won my last few pots. Been very aggressive. At the final 2 tables, 163 entered, final 17

CL w/ ~145k
UTG villain has about 125k

Blinds 1200/2400 ante 400

UTG tries to raise to 9400, but says raise 7000, so raises to a total of 7k

I'm right behind and look at:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I think and raise 20k more

Folds to villain who thinks for about 15 sec and calls.

Flop:

9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain thinks for about 5 sec and moves AI

Villain is a tough player, been raising a lot, has only showed down good hands when raising PF. Also seems to be a good reader.

What hands am I beating here? If I'm up against only a single club, is it worth it to gamble on a 50/50 shot? Hero thinks a while and...

[thedustbustr]

hands like this make me so happy i don't play tournaments. i could not imagine folding here.

ok carry on

[AceLuby]

Is this so uninteresting...

[ZBTHorton]

I'd probably say there's an 80% chance he's got AK/AQ w/ a ace of clubs. Because that's the only hand I play this hand that way with.

With that said, you've got a TON of chips left...I probably lay it down.

[SossMan]

with your chip position and control of the table, i'm pretty sure this is a fairly standard fold.

[AceLuby]

Anything from the morning crowd?

[betgo]

I call. If he had AA-KK, he would probably reraise preflop, and probably would bet smaller here. Similarly, a set or flush bets smaller. He probably has Ac. He certainly could be well ahead, but it is more likely he is way behind with JJ/TT or something, likely with a club.

If he has Ac, he is the slight favorite with AK and the slight underdog otherwise. There is obviously major pot odds with 62K in the pot and villain pushing 98K in.

The payouts in these are top heavy and you won't be the chips leader if you fold. I call and gamble to win the tournament. I really think that folding in this situation is very weak/tight.

Preflop, I might just flat call, given villain's position and mine. If villain or someone else put in a third raise preflop, you are in a tricky situaiton, although you probably have to call.

[A_PLUS]

I feel like I have been saying this a lot lately, but...

maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not folding.

He overbet shoves, sure looks like the Ac (probably AK-AQ) to me. If he does it with the nuts, awesome, great play. But I think there is a real chance this is TT-JJ with a club a well. The only hand we dont 'like' to see is AK, with a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (other than a made flush or a set that is.

I can see why people could fold here, I just wouldnt do it.

[AceLuby]

Now to the real question, suppose we can put him on TT-JJ w/ a club. We are 50/50 to win the pot (53/47), now is that enough of an edge late in this tourney to call off almost all of our chips? Is it worth it to gamble here to get a MONSTER chip lead or possibly bust out (I'm not ITM yet, as it is a flat payout 6-15 of $600 and skyrockets from there), or should I wait for a better spot to win against some of the weaker players?

[J.A.K.]

Getting 1.6-1 as a favorite and not giving a crap about winning $100 I call. Its +EV, it's the play to "win" not "place", you are knocking out a tough opponent, this play will satisfy the "gamble" in you, and I imagine there is another trny tomorrow.