55 6 Man Bubble - AK vs. loose player, flopped top pair

[FearNoEvil]

Thoughts on my line here? I was hesitant to raise PF because villain was making loose calls pre and post-flop. Maybe a 1/2 pot to 3/4 pot PF raise to define my hand, then fold the river with a clear conscience? Full pot bet on flop?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t80/t160
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: t4190
SB: t1330
Hero: t3480

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Button calls t160 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t240)</font>, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t400, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t200</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t1000</font>, Hero calls t800 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t1600)</font>.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t2400, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t2400, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets t2400</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: t2400 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: t2400

[Lego05]

Ok well why don't you show everybody's stacks so we have all the information.

Then I raise pre-flop....possibly pushing all-in there depending on the stacks although probably not looking at future bet sizes.

On the flop I bet slightly more than 200. When I get raised on the flop I reraise.... very probably all-in depending upon stack sizes.

On the turn I bet.

The way you have played this you have dug a bit of a hole for yourslef on the river. I probably still at least call and possibly raise all-in depending on stack sizes.




Not rasing pre-flop is a serious mistake. Not reraising on the flop is a criminal offense. The hand should be over.

[FearNoEvil]

Sorry, first time using converter forgot to set stack sizes. You can see stack sizes were the important concern here as I need a very strong hand to risk all my chips if I have questionable fold equity, due to the fact that the EV I gain does not compare well with the EV I stand to lose. In this case, vs. this player I did not know where I stood on the flop since I made the error of not raising pre-flop to define my hand.

I actually don't agree with your recommendation to push all in on flop to a raise because FE is questionable, in my opinion, vs this player, and a draw doesn't seem proabable.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
I was hesitant to raise PF because villain was making loose calls pre and post-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, this is just an awful way to think about things...especially when your stack is over 20xBB. You raise for VALUE here. If he's making loose calls pre and post, then it's highly likely he'll call your PF raise with a worse hand. At the most fundamental levels of poker, this is where we should be making lots of our profit -- from calling stations just like this guy.

That shouldn't make you hesitant to raise a premium hand, it should make you happy to extract money from a weaker player.

And then, what are you doing on the flop? First, bet out a little more than half the pot...then, push over the top of him when he raises.

Lots could be done better here.

[Lego05]

Ok, I see the stacks. I definitely raise pre-flop.

As played:
I push all-in on the flop. I don't really care too much about fold equity with the hand I have. Anyway though I feel you still have some fold equity. However, whatever I'm kinda hoping the idiot calls me so I double through him and can go ahead to completely pwn the situation, althoug obviously if he folds that's fine too.


And besides if you aren't going to reraise all-in on the flop then what's the point of calling? If you won't re-raise all-in there then just fold. However, I feel the clearly correct play (disregarding pre-flop play) is to reraise all-in on the flop.

[FearNoEvil]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I see the stacks. I definitely raise pre-flop.

As played:
I push all-in on the flop. I don't really care too much about fold equity with the hand I have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right. In a cash game vs. a loose player, I would say you are clearly correct. The only reason I played the hand I did (and probably incorrectly) is because maybe I was thinking too much in terms of ICM. ICM indicates that, in the situation of a call 100% of the time, I need to win 68.6% of the time to put all my chips in in this spot. Given the hands that he is raising with here, I am not sure if he is on average less than 31.4%. I have done the combinations before, but I have to look it up (probability he has A2,A3, etc., averaged).

The reason I just called the flop, kind of a dumb play, but I figured I was getting 2 to 1 odds and the chips were closer in value because it was not an all in. I figured there were enough hands that he was raising there to make a 2 to 1 call correct but I didn't want to precipitate an all in situation due to ICM chip differences.

Can you clear up if I am over compensating for ICM differences in this spot? Obviously you think I played it wrong, but don't the massively changing chip values on the bubble imply a more passive approach is better against a loose player who will call all in on a wider range? This is the issue I am trying to figure out.

[FearNoEvil]

I agree with you that raising for value is fundamental but for reasons which I touched on in my last post (getting played off my hand later when I don't want to play a big pot due to chip positions) I didn't, although I now realize I should have because at this stage in the hand the chips don't change value that much according to ICM. However, I think pushing all in on the flop is closer than people think in this spot because ICM indicates I have to win the hand 68.6% of the time (assuming he calls 100% of the time, which he probably won't, which changes the overall calculation). In a cash game, I only have to win the hand about 41% if he calls 100% of the time. I know he won't call every time, but obviously on that side of the equation, I am not doing nearly as well when he calls than if the chips are of equal value. Earlier in a tournamnet I would play the hand the way you recommend (although I do limp OOP with AK too much), but the bubble seems to imply that one should play more passively in this type of situation because the chips you stand to win in an all in confrontation are worth so much less than the chips you stand to lose.

My question is, am I over-compensating for this? I will do the math of his pot equity if he calls 100% of the time to my flop all-in re-raise. I think I am probably overestimating how much pot equity he has.

[SammyKid11]

What you're doing is overthinking what should be a pretty simple decision. Your read shows this guy to be loose, yet you're not raising him preflop with AK when he limps on the button (BTW, I limp/check with AK exactly 0% of the time in situations even remotely similar to this). Then you're giving him credit for a monster when you're holding TPTK on a pretty safe-looking flop.

Look, yeah...some of the time he's going to have a set in his hand. And the way you played it, maybe he did suck out on you by the river...because you did everything in your power to LET him do that. But you've got to protect your good hands and derive value from them. The BUBBLE is not when it's time for you to start playing scared...and 6 people left is NOT even the bubble.

I'm being serious when I tell you that the processes your mind is going through when making these decisions is simply flawed. I would actually really advise starting over and grounding yourself in more solid SnG strategy if any of these moves do not immediately jump out at you as big mistakes. By the time you hit the $55 level you should be playing hands like this in a very robotic, automatic fashion, knowing the correct things to do. You did none of them...and I'm not trying to insult you here, I'm just letting you know that if you want to be a long-term consistent winner, this is not how to do it. And I can only assume if your instincts on a hand like this are not correct then there are probably lots of other poor habits that you've developed as well. I would recommend stepping back from 55 down to like 11, reading this board furiously, grounding yourself in the solid strategies contained on a board like this, and then working your way back up.

Just my humble opinion...feel free to take it or leave it.

[LordTacohead]

Calling the flop is pretty bad, I think. If you're really terrified of him having two pair or a set, you need to be folding, not calling off 25% of your chips. Without a ninja read, I push over his reraise 100% of the time. Incidentally, I share your fear of raising preflop, then playing a big pot out of position against a donk who won't fold. On the bubble, no less. Even so, your hand is just too good to check. Raise to 550, then play the flop very fast if you hit anything. If he sucks out with a lower ace, well, you can't win them all.

[dumbmother]

this is a raise pf, bigger raise on the flop and instipush all-in to the reraise.

PF raise- have to raise AK 3 handed unless you are going for a trop the whole hand- in which case you should let us know that.

flop- i'd bet the pot here definately commits the small stack if he calls and i'm not worried about gettng all my chips in when i flop TPTK w/AK and checked pf so a lot of opponents would call with a worse A here.

instipush facing reraise- in this situation unless i have a read i think your hand is hidden enough in value to go against the villain who could have any two cards based on your read and could easily be betting out a pair of fives or air trying to get you to fold this pot because it is a pivotal point for stack sizes (if he didn't already have control before this hand he will after the chip exchange he has you 3:2 if he wins) and in a lot of cases he'd get to push you around til the small stack exits the tournament if he can get this hand under his belt.

dm