handling variance

ohgod123 · #1 07-26-2006, 01:08 AM

Just two weeks ago, I had accumulated roughly 15000 playing 5/10 NL online. About a week after that, I had a terrible day where I tilted off about 8k after taking a few tough beats. My question is what I should do right now...I feel as if I am playing badly and no longer have my mojo for poker. I am continually making stupid plays, trying to get my money back - and it's not working. It seems like I don't even remember how to play the solid game that I am used to(I'm a solid player in my opinion).

Since I only plan on using the 6000 I have left to play poker, what should I do at this point? I tried returning to tournaments but I haven't even made a final table this week...whereas before I used to make a few final tables each week. I even promised myself to only play tournaments until July ends - so I won't tilt away all my cash in a NL cash game.

I'm convinced that tournament is the way to go, but what do you guys suggest?

Slappy002 · #2 07-26-2006, 01:14 AM

Don't play for a week. Figure out what is causing you to suck. Stop sucking.

Come back and 1 or 2 table NL200 in non-sucking mode.

Curse · #3 07-26-2006, 01:17 AM

your were playing 5/10NL with 15k which is alright most would suggest 20k+, but as soon as you hit 12k you should of if on tilt quit, and when you logged back in started 3/6NL. now you are at 6k which is overrolled for 1/2NL but underrolled for 2/4NL. but you could do either if you feel comfortable, thats the only way to handle variance is to move down where doing busto is almost unexistent.

uDevil · #4 07-26-2006, 01:28 AM

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I'm convinced that tournament is the way to go, but what do you guys suggest?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to avoid variance, I suggest you rethink this.

But really, you seem confused about some very basic topics. Study the game-- learn to play well. Learn about bankroll considerations. Drop down in stakes. Record your results until you have good statistical evidence that you are a winner.

ohgod123 · #5 07-26-2006, 02:37 AM

well i have pokertracker and it tells me that i am a 8BB/hr winner at 5/10 NL...ideally, what should i be at?

PokerStorm · #6 07-26-2006, 11:08 AM

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well i have pokertracker and it tells me that i am a 8BB/hr winner at 5/10 NL

[/ QUOTE ]

Not anymore it doesn't.

Drop down to 2/4 or preferably to 1/2 till you get your confidance and your game back. I had to do this at one stage even though I had more than enough roll. My game was gone from burnout and dropping solved the problem and saved me alot of tilt cash.

uDevil · #7 07-26-2006, 11:42 AM

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well i have pokertracker and it tells me that i am a 8BB/hr winner at 5/10 NL...ideally, what should i be at?

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If you follow the link I posted you should be able to decide for yourself.

PokerTracker also gives you a standard deviation. I don't play much No Limit, so this is just a guess-- let's say SD ~20 BB/hr. Since you still have a bankroll of 600 BB, your risk of ruin is <.01%. This is pretty small, so you should be fine in this game IF my SD guess is good and IF your current winrate is actually your true winrate.

ohgod123 · #8 07-26-2006, 06:56 PM

thanks for the advice guys...i've been playing on pacific poker and stars for awhile now...and i think pacific has actually made me worse as a player. What amount do you think I should get to before moving back up to 3/6 or 5/10 NL?

stickupkid81 · #9 07-26-2006, 08:14 PM

When I am running bad, I always play tourneys sng's mainly. I feel that i will play better, because I won't played on "scared" money. When you play catch up it never works, at least in my experience.

Eric Stoner · #10 07-27-2006, 09:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the advice guys...i've been playing on pacific poker and stars for awhile now...and i think pacific has actually made me worse as a player. What amount do you think I should get to before moving back up to 3/6 or 5/10 NL?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to try to help here...

First, uDevil posted a link and suggested that you click on it and follow it. It has some math in it that by figuring out the numbers from Pokertracker and inputing them into the formulas should give you a very clear picture (either close to the typical standard bankroll requirements or far away) of what bankroll you need. Before stating that "this is the way to go for you", I would still add that you do the math for yourself. It'll help...

One line of thought is that you only want 5% of your bankroll in play. So, if your bankroll is 6000, then, having 300 in play would be a solid number (good for the 1/2NL game). In your case, right now, based on your tilt story, you I would suggest a number lower than 5% until you get a true handle on the game, its variance, and your emotions. If you are a winning player, dropping down for awhile to get readjusted will put you back in the higher game in no time.

As far as the bankroll issues, I think you can figure out the rest for yourself.

One parting suggestion...you don't need to be the best player - just at the table you are currently playing . So, if you are inferring that by playing at Pacific hurts your earn as a player because of the competition, then I would really rethink that. If you are inferring that you are making tilt inspired decisions because of weaker players making mistakes and drawing out on you, it won't matter where you play - you'll still have the same problem you wrote about in your original post.