AQo against flop donkbet

Romulus141 · #1 07-25-2006, 12:44 PM

After my somewhat embarrassing last post, I tried to find something better to post. I'm hoping this isn't another immediately obvious hand... but if it is, oh well.

MP2 is 38/3/1.83 after 34 hands.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero...

I'm trying to figure out when the free card play is worth attempting, btw.

Pot is big, and on this flop, there is a chance I still have the best hand. I'm not quite ready to give up on this hand yet. Is this a good place to raise for a free card? Granted, I'm not last to act, but the Button is a loose, fit or fold kind of player. If he has any piece of the flop he'll bet out and/or stay in the hand. If he doesn't have anything, he'll fold on the flop. Given this flop, he's probably not as likely to have hit, so I can be pretty sure that he'll fold to one bet, and most likely to two.

jaxUp · #2 07-25-2006, 12:45 PM

just fold since 2 players yet to act

Romulus141 · #3 07-25-2006, 12:53 PM

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just fold since 2 players yet to act

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Huh? There's only the button after my action... and I also have a straight draw, so I have at least the odds to continue with that if someone has the king.

Langerz · #4 07-25-2006, 01:15 PM

Fold? he's getting 12.4 to 1? I know the board is paired, but that should be enough to continue. I'm debating how to continue, but I'm sure I continue. I'm not sure what raising would accomplish here other than a free card, unless you think villian would bet without a T, K or PP. In that case you have to improve. The only hand I can think of that you may get to fold that you want out might be J9 (I don't think QJ is folding). A free card would be nice, but getting c/r'd would suck. Maybe the c/r is why the recommendation is to fold. I settled on call but could go either way.

bozlax · #5 07-25-2006, 01:19 PM

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just fold since 2 players yet to act

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Huh? There's only the button after my action... and I also have a straight draw, so I have at least the odds to continue with that if someone has the king.

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There are actually 3 players left to act, Button and the two checkers. So you could get caught in the middle of a raising war.

Jax's point is that ALL you have is your gutshot outs...not only are your ace and queen outs not good enough to put you ahead of trips, they also put straights on the board. After discounting your straight outs for the times they give KJ the boat, you don't have enough to continue, given that you don't know what the action behind you will be. Closing the action, you could peel; with 3 players yet to act, you can fold.

KingOtter · #6 07-25-2006, 01:31 PM

He isn't betting a king on the flop. He's betting a T, or another pair, maybe something like 66. There's a 95% probability you won't hear from a king until the turn.

The problem with the straight is that it's a bit tainted with the paired board, so you can't give yourself full odds. Couple that with the fact you won't know where you stand until the turn, and this is a quicksand hand.

I'd probably call the flop and unless I flopped something amazing (the jack, or maybe an Ace, but I don't like queens) fold on the turn.

Edit: Was in the middle of posting and got interrupted.... I definitely agree with those that say fold, and you probably should. But it is a big pot... I would tread carefully, especially on the turn which is where I expect the big fireworks to take place.

oldschool_vegas · #7 07-25-2006, 01:49 PM

I don't know what that x/y/x means by mp2's name, but if he is a really aggressive player and likes to bluff alot, I would call. I think the pot makes it worth going for your gutshot straight, or a high pair q/a. But I am noob, so probably taking the opposite of my advice is the best path. So you should probably fold.

Bodizapha · #8 07-25-2006, 02:07 PM

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just fold since 2 players yet to act

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I disagree. I think he has to call here.

kerowo · #9 07-25-2006, 02:16 PM

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just fold since 2 players yet to act

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I disagree. I think he has to call here.

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Why? How many outs do you think he has to improve?

KingOtter · #10 07-25-2006, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what that x/y/x means by mp2's name, but if he is a really aggressive player and likes to bluff alot, I would call. I think the pot makes it worth going for your gutshot straight, or a high pair q/a. But I am noob, so probably taking the opposite of my advice is the best path. So you should probably fold.

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KO