AdQd - I three-bet preflop and call down with Ace high against unknown

BostonMetro · #1 07-24-2006, 02:10 PM

I'm in an FTP $1/2 short game and the hijack posts. UTG folds, he raises, I three AdQd in the CO. It's folded around and we are HU.

Flop 8 3 2 rainbow (one diamond). He leads into me. I call.

Turn (8 3 2) 3 (not a diamond). He leads into me. I call.

River (8 3 2 3) x. He leads again. I call.

I don't have the exact history, but I'm really interested in hearing general thoughts about this.

PF I have his range on 77o-up, A8s-up, ATo-up, KTs-up, KJo-up. One can argue that his range opens up a lot b/c he posted blind. What I'm interested in is how much of a betting tell is it that he donks the flop and turn into me?

It seems like KK and AA are standard check/call flop, check/raise turn, and TT-QQ I would check-raise the flop and go from there. When he leads every street, sure he'll have 66-99 some of the time, but he'll also have a lot of unpaired hands a lot. What do people think of the play of just calling down? After doing the math, I think folding is atrocious - but I have to say that I would have likely folded the turn if the board hadn't paired on the turn (this gave me 6 outs to a split with AK).

Perhaps this is an easy situation but I struggle a lot with showing down marginal hands so I figured I'd post this one I nearly got away from.

raytownloc · #2 07-24-2006, 02:20 PM

I think calling down is fine against an unknown. just one thing... Why does his range open up because he posted and then raised? Are you saying that most people raise more when they post? I certainly don't.

BostonMetro · #3 07-24-2006, 02:27 PM

Well, yeah. One of the Sklansky books, probably HEFAP, says that you should most likely raise any two when it's folded around to you when you post in the CO. It's just because you already have chips committed to the pot so your steal play is cheaper. If the blinds are loose or they are TAGs who know what you are doing, it's probably not true. He also says it doesn't matter whether you come into the game in the BB or posted in the CO, whereas on here I think they say it's +EV to come in posted blind in the CO, so maybe people here have resolved that you don't want to raise any two posted in the CO.

bbbushu · #4 07-24-2006, 05:11 PM

any good reason to not raise the flop and try to get information/ a cheaper showdown? New guy might not value bet a marginal hand once you raise them again.

BostonMetro · #5 07-24-2006, 05:54 PM

Yeah, you should never do this because you lose money when the guy is pumping a worse hand that is often drawing to three outs (he will fold to your raise) and you lose money when he has the pair (he will often call and donk the turn or lead the river).

Carmine · #6 07-24-2006, 06:04 PM

seeing as you 3-bet PF I think a FCP works a good percentage of the time and let that be the last $$ you put into the pot UI.

Carmine · #7 07-24-2006, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you should never do this because you lose money when the guy is pumping a worse hand that is often drawing to three outs (he will fold to your raise) and you lose money when he has the pair (he will often call and donk the turn or lead the river).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but you also have to pay 2.5BB more to see a SD. You made your posturing move PF and he is betting out a safe(non-Ace) flop. I think you are the one drawing more often then not and you are taking the most expensive route.

Another line is to just call the flop with odds to draw and fold turn. The turn will sometimes go check/check.

duckman · #8 07-24-2006, 06:36 PM

I like it and would of likely done the same if for nothing more to get a read and establish a table image.

More generally this post fits into something I have been thinking about - which is how to counter player specific strategies.
There is a species of player that just bets into you regardless of the flop, regardless of how they hit the flop. Identifying these guys quickly I think is a money making proposition.
I seem to be running into more and more of these guys. They realize that both of you only have a 30% chance of hitting the flop and that by betting with any two they have the best chance oof getting you to fold unimproved overcards.
Against these serial betters I think calling down is the best subject to some very scary boards.

Since their betting offers no information (they bet into you no matter what) then you are left to base your decesion based on preflop activity and the board.

So let them bet -most of the time you will be ahead.

Remember being ahead at the flop is not a 50/50 propositon. You are much more likely to be ahead because his range is likely much wider than yours.
If there is a nasty board (2 or more cards in the playzone) fold your overcards ui on the turn.
Unless there is a strong draw on the board play possum with top pair waiting to the river to raise.
Otherwise call down.
Fight overagressiveness by becoming a calling station.
ADJUST IF HE ADJUSTS ie give up sooner on the turn.
If he starts folding to river raises start bluff raising him on the river.

BostonMetro · #9 07-24-2006, 06:46 PM

I mean, with your play the 1/3 of the time you have him beat you make 2 BBs with this play, the 2/3 of the time he has you beat, you lose 5 BBs. With my play, the 1/3 of the time you have him beat, you make 4.5 BBs and the 2/3 of the time you are beat you lose 5.5 BBs.

I'm not sure it's close. I think it's really important not to take too aggressive of a line shorthanded when you are WA/WB. That's a recipe for winning small pots and losing big pots, which is absolutely deadly when you are paying the blinds 33+% of the hands.