I can't put him on quads, can I? Deep in 11r

DDBeast · #1 07-23-2006, 12:55 PM

PS 11r, on the FT bubble. I have a monster stack and have been incessantly beating on the table. I make this loose call pf with the intention of stealing later.
Reads: Haven't played a lot of hands with him, but he seems to be solid, hasn't done anything crazy. I have been beating on him a lot since he is 2nd biggest stack at the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB (t114826)
UTG (t1294064)
MP (t410331)
Hero (t2875454)
SB (t309726)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t120000, 1 fold, Hero calls t120000, 2 folds.

Flop: (t248000) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t160000, Hero calls t160000.

Turn: (t568000) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (t568000) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t1012064 (All-In), Hero ....

Final Pot: t2592128

footnbaseball · #2 07-23-2006, 01:21 PM

I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

Machinehead · #3 07-23-2006, 01:40 PM

I want to fold. I think you're rarely winning the whole thing. At best you're probably splitting with another A, in which you're putting up 1mil to win less than 300k. If he has the K, you lose 1mil.

2 Aces and 1 King left. Even if you factor in the HOH 10% bluffing probability, it's still a losing call.

I also don't think pushing means he doesn't have the K. If he has the K and pushes, most players would pay him off with the A. If they don't have the A, they weren't paying off his quads anyways. Push doesn't seem like a bad play at all with the K.

Foucault · #4 07-23-2006, 01:40 PM

Fold pre-flop. I understand what you are trying to do, but for every time that you steal it from him (and if you've already been beating on him, this will be harder than you think) you're going to end up in a bad spot like this, or worse. I really don't see this call being +EV in the long run even if you do think you can take it away some of the time. Villain is UTG, after all, and you've got A-rag.

I like the way you played it after that, and I do think you have to call the river. You are praying for a chop and you will lose to quads some of the time, but I don't think often enough.

If we think he has to have one of three cards to do this (the case K or one of the remaining A's), and we assume he can have more Ax than Kx hands when raising UTG, then I'd expect him to have quads maybe 15-20% of the time. It's a [censored] spot for you, though, and a good reason not to call UTG raises with A4s.

ViciousGame · #5 07-23-2006, 01:41 PM

My feeling is that he has an Ace only. However, moving in with with the case King would be the most equitable play on his part, but most players would prefer to value bet it instead.

yabastid · #6 07-23-2006, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

This kind of thinking is why pushing quads here is +EV.

Fold.

Edited to say: Given the way the hand played out, with the A on the flop- I push quads here on river every time.

footnbaseball · #7 07-23-2006, 01:49 PM

I'm not saying pushing quads here is a bad play, I'm saying I think it's safe to say the average online player would not push quads here.

sirtemple · #8 07-23-2006, 02:06 PM

Wouldn't a turn bet of half the pot been appropriate? The only reason I could see checking through the turn was to induce a bluff on the river. If that was the case then you have to call.

Jason

Foucault · #9 07-23-2006, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

This kind of thinking is why pushing quads here is +EV.

Fold.

Edited to say: Given the way the hand played out, with the A on the flop- I push quads here on river every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Hero is calling 102K to win 28K, so Villain has to have quads more than 1 time in 4 (allowing for the fact that losing a big stack on the bubble is more bad than chopping this pot is good). Don't you think he plays an A the same way? I'm not saying he should, but I think most would. I also think a lot of even pretty bad players will shove quads here, it doesn't take a genious to realize Hero has an A. Still, even if he played all his Ax and Kx hands under the gun, he'd have A twice as often, and if we assume he plays more Ax than Kx hands, I think we see A three times as often as K, which means this is a call.

JCool · #10 07-23-2006, 02:54 PM

1) I see nothing wrong with calling PF in position. Five handed UTG raises are meaningless.

2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

3) The 55k is donktastic

4) I'd call.