Good spot? Bad Spot? Does it matter?

[A_PLUS]

Party 40K

Bubble just broke, blinds just moved to 1.5/3K, some small ante.
Villan has been aggressive, but he had the stack on the bubble, so I dont want to get too carried away with that.

Villan min-raised UG (a lot of his have been) to 6K
Hero is in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], with 17K.

Villan folded the last time he open min-raised UG, but that was when the only stack that covered him bet 24K. I know he isnt folding, but at this point, does it matter?

I have already run numbers on this, and will post them later. I wanted to see what everyone else thought. But I think this spot goes beyond CEV.

I need to accumulate a crazy amount of chips to get to a final table. With 6xBB, I am basically pushing every orbit, probably twice if I can. 13xBB, allows me much more 'play' (resteals, BoB plays, SNG, etc). Given that the bogey is so far out of site, I think the value of 13xBB is worth more than what CEV would suggest.

thoughts on either part?

[JCool]

Looks like an easy push to me. You're in the redzone with a pretty decent hand and little fold equity and your up against a more aggressive, wider opening range person at the table.

[A_PLUS]

How wide to you think he is opening UG? Assuming he is a decent player (which I am assuming). He was agressive with a big stack on the bubble. Good players opening ranges, should be cut in 1/2 at least, probably more.

[NoahSD]

I'm assuming this is 9-handed... otherwise things change a lot. If he's opening UTG with a loose image just after the bubble burst, he's probably not opening too loose.

His actual range depends a ton on the other stacks at the table and how they've been playing, so whether to push ATs here depends a lot on that too. In general, I think this is a fold, and my pushing range here is 88+/AJ+.

[mornelth]

While I agree that accumulating chips is paramount (and sticking it to a hyoeraggressive UTG is important too) - ATs is the hand I throw away without much regret - no FE and dominated too often. I doubt villain opens with ANYTHING that you currently beat (maybe suited connectors, but probably not right after the bubble has burst). Gap concept all the way, baby!!! Open wide, but wait for a better hand to touch sloppy seconds...

[TakenItEasy]

The minraise and the fact that he is often minraising is what gets me. It kind of implies that he is trying to play postflop with a wider range. I'm not that familiar with Paty, what are the stack sizes like?

You kind of implied that he had more than one raise size, any reads there?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming this is 9-handed... otherwise things change a lot. If he's opening UTG with a loose image just after the bubble burst, he's probably not opening too loose.

His actual range depends a ton on the other stacks at the table and how they've been playing, so whether to push ATs here depends a lot on that too. In general, I think this is a fold, and my pushing range here is 88+/AJ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 handed.

My table math really betrayed me here, and I jammed before I realized it. Looking back, be would have to have had to be opening way light (KJo, 55, etc) for this push to be right.

I do think it is correct to take slightly the worst of it with my chips stack. In fact I will usually push the first unopened pot I see regardless of cards or position. But this was definitely the worst of it, which should always be avoided. At least open pushing ends up [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 50%+ of the time.

[somerook]

What's villain stack? (will help determine FE)

If you're jamming - you're prolly against small pair, suited connectors, monsters

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.3015 % 49.04% 00.26% { AsTs }
Hand 2: 50.6985 % 50.43% 00.26% { KK+, 66-22, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s }

Dead even. Am I ready to flip this early?
Nah - i fold here and wait for a better spot. First in vigorish baby

[A_PLUS]

Villan has over 50K

early? We are over 90% through the field. We are getting closer to the point where I would think it was too late to flip, than too early (personally with this stack there is never a 'too early' point).

That is a curious range. Does he fold QQ-77? any hand with an Ace as well?
The stacks at the table were mostly in the 15-35K range, with 2 larger stacks (50+). He is comitted to call pretty often here, I dont think any suited connectors (below KQs) are that likely.

[somerook]

Looks like we think different. Anyway here's my rationale
[ QUOTE ]
early? We are over 90% through the field.

[/ QUOTE ]
But you just burst the bubble. If you get out, you're prolly taking home how much -- $27.7234??. If you're pushing this, you're basically saying I'm in a hurry to double up, I want a coin flip, or will take my entry fee back.

[ QUOTE ]
That is a curious range. Does he fold QQ-77? any hand with an Ace as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right, he does not. However, IMHO unlikely that he is minraising w them as well.