Bottom 2-pair, easy fold on turn?

kdotsky · #1 07-21-2006, 09:50 PM

I normally play sngs or mtts; I think I might be a donk with deep stacks. Please comment:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($275.65)
UTG ($152)
UTG+1 ($241)
MP1 ($196.55)
MP2 ($484.30)
MP3 ($116.90)
CO ($405.70)
Button ($199.60)
Hero ($183)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, 5 folds, Hero calls $5, 1 fold.

Flop: ($14) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12.

Turn: ($38) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG+1 raises to $85

He's got to have a set or AJ here, right?

Thanks.

scorer · #2 07-21-2006, 09:59 PM

I see it as a coin toss. Seeing his agression you can expect to see more on the river from him. He could have any number of holdings J/A 2 pair or a good ace maybe A/K.

fishfeet · #3 07-21-2006, 10:00 PM

I put him on AK.

A-J probably raises the flop.

edit: actually, it may be just A-q... overs and the draw makes the call better on the flop.

Buckyfuller · #4 07-21-2006, 10:10 PM

AK, AQ, and sometimes even KQ raise here as well.

If I had to bet (which you have to in the hand), I'd say this is either JJ or AK.

Also possible, but singificantly less likely in each sucessive case in decending order: AQ, AJ, AA, KQ, 88, 99, AT, QT Ax

I wouldn't worry much about 88 or 99 cause you've got all of those. AA is unlikely because I don't think that flop is good to SP, I'd raise you.

He raised PF, so the main question you have to ask yourself is: would he normally raise AJ pf? If yes, then you've got a marginal decision, and I might let it go. But If no, there is absolutely no way I lay this hand, there are more hands you've got beat that move here than you don't.

That is how I think about it, maybe a better player will come along and give you different advice.

kdotsky · #5 07-21-2006, 10:11 PM

Seems like dangerous board to be calling the flop with AQ/AK. If you think he does have it, what's the line, just push?