ATs flops a big draw

[Kyriefurro]

I've played a lot of hands with villain now, and he's a TAG who runs on the nittish side pre-flop (13/4/5). Yeah, that's a 5 post-flop AF, but it's entirely the result of a very low WSD (11%).

I've been running hot and playing very aggressively, so villain my think I'm full of it.

0.25/0.50 NLHE 6-max (6 players)

Stacks:
Hero - $84
MP - $45

Hero is on the Button w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG calls, MP calls, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls

($9.75) Flop <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $7, UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $21</font>, Hero......?

It's push or fold here. Which is it, and why?

[terp]

i only see one choice if you plan on continuing with this hand, which i would

EDIT: fine, you want justification. you've put in $10 of his stacksize so it's essentially $35 more to you. i assume he's calling so we're getting a shot at 55 for 35 - roughly 3:2. even against a set we're not too much worse than 3:2 and he has less than a set often if he's that aggressive.

if he has a made straight, that kind of sucks, but we still have (presumably) nine outs to a hand that beats his and about a 30% shot at hitting. we have the 10s, which is helpful since we know he has no more than one spade if he has a straight. he probably has 0 though because i don't see a 13/4 calling a raise w/109o.

basically, worst case, he has a set/straight and the odds are slightly against us. if he only does this with those hands, fine, you can fold

[cbloom]

Pretty obvious shove. You're not even in terrible shape against a set, and I don't think he would play a set like that.

[anacrime]

whhhhhhhhat.... easiest push since the dawn of poker

you have two nut draws and another straight draw....

even if you KNOW he has QQQ, you'll still win the hand 40% of the time and with the money already in the pot pushing against QQQ is +EV. Against 9T you're almost 45%.

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty obvious shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty obvious shove. You're not even in terrible shape against a set, and I don't think he would play a set like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh....yeah, he would [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

When the hand played out I figured I'd missed the read, especially considering how nittish this guy is. But since no one else saw it either, I don't feel so bad lol.

And, as everyone pointed out, I'm not in bad shape, even against a set.