22s - TT bubble 3-way

Mark1978 · #1 07-21-2006, 01:51 AM

PartyPoker $22 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t3988)
Button (t2025)
SB (t9797)
Hero (t4190)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, BTN is all-in, SB is all-in, Hero ??

Am I right to stay out of this one?

King Car · #2 07-21-2006, 02:49 AM

Even against a wide range, calling here is -EV.

LordTacohead · #3 07-21-2006, 03:19 AM

Is it really? Hero has to finish last here to bubble out. And if Hero wins, he's in a really excellent place to take first. What's your calling range here?

PokerIsLife · #4 07-21-2006, 01:17 PM

This might be an okay call, since the only way you will lose is if Button>SB>Hero. But it does depend on the ranges that think Button and SB is on.

HesseJam · #5 07-21-2006, 01:28 PM

I played with poker stove and if you have both relatively tight (BTN 30%) (SB 5%) you'll win 1/3 rd of the time and bust at 4th only 12% of the time. Sounds good but maybe better than it really is in terms of EV. Too lazy to calculate that. Also my ranges are a tad too tight.

BTW JJ boost your winrate to 40% QQ to 47 and KK to 57.

Captain Insano · #6 07-21-2006, 01:34 PM

Definite call here. BTN is very short stack and can only last 3-4 turns, he'll go all-in with any "sort of good hands" (A, K even Q - anything) perhaps connectors too. Even tight players won't wait for AA to go all-in when you have a very short stack.

You have a premium hand that can only be beaten by high pairs. You need to take chances unless you just want to finish 3rd.

Limesparks · #7 07-21-2006, 01:46 PM

Assuming you all have hands with roughly equal equity (seems reasonable):

If you fold:
%48 you're ITM with the smallest stack fighting for 2nd
%48 you're still in the thick of bubble action with the smallest stack.
~4% (they chop) you're still on the bubble with the second smallest stack

If you call:
%33 you're ITM with a 10K stack
%33 you're out in 3rd
%16.5 you have a 4000 stack still on the bubble
%16.5 you finish OTM

66%ITM (w/33% chance of owning 3-way) vs. 48%ITM
I have to go with a call here.

ALReturnsLOL · #8 07-21-2006, 06:19 PM

yeah fold.