AK against a preflop capper

[ElAnimal]

Villain is ~47/15/1.5 after just 19 hands. He went to showdown with two other hand he raised preflop, and they were legit raising hands. My only other read is he called a flop bet w/ top pair to checkraise the turn in a previous hand.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP folds.

Turn: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Based on the preflop action, I think I'm either splitting or crushed. But is it still an easy call down?

[milesdyson]

i'm not positive you should bet the flop or whatever, but clearly you're not folding the turn. TJQKA is the nuts after all. gagagaga

[True]

why bet the flop?

True

[ElAnimal]

[ QUOTE ]
why bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was an error. I'm challenged.

If you check the flop, do you intend to c/c down if you don't improve? (assuming you don't know the J will fall on the turn.)

[Jackie Onassis]

I don't consider the flop bet to be much of an error really but the turn bet looks real bad.

[ElAnimal]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not positive you should bet the flop or whatever, but clearly you're not folding the turn. TJQKA is the nuts after all. gagagaga

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But do you also call a blank river? And do you think it's close?

[Heisenb3rg]

Betting flop = bad I think, because youre not folding any better hands. If it's a smaller PP he's very likely not to improve, although the size of the pot says something to protect it. He wont call down with hands you have beat (whereas he might bet if you are just calling). He also will likely charge you more with a better hand.

Turn is an easy call because of the gutshot.

If the river doesn't complete the gutshot, you are getting
12 to 1 on a river bet.

Hand combinations that are the most likely
AK - 6
AA - 3
KK - 1
QQ - 3
JJ - 3

6 ways for a split pot
10 ways for a non split pot

so 3 to 10, the other factors to consider is there are a signifcant number of people who dont cap AK/JJ PF, so discount those a little bit. But then also consider the very small possibility that hes bluffing, and the unlikely possiblity of him capping PF with AT/KQ.

All in all getting 12 to 1, it's a very easy call on the river.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't consider the flop bet to be much of an error really but the turn bet looks real bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF!!!

no...

if bet flop, turn bet is standard.

c/c down is fine, c/r is cool, whatever.

True

[Jackie Onassis]

How is the turn bet standard at all. Name hands we're beating.

Basically, the group of hands that are worse than ours that he will call the turn with is very small. AQ/AJ basically (you need him to cap these preflop out of the blinds, though), TT if he's horrible and called the flop with that. About it. We get raised too much by basically everything else imo to not just checkcall here.

I never said the flop bet was the best play, I just said you have it's not much an error if it is one.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
How is the turn bet standard at all. Name hands we're beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/fold better than c/f c/c

True