British Open Playoff?

chev9 · #1 07-18-2006, 02:32 PM

Another ridiculous line posted on Bodog. Man I love their props sometimes. Although this will probably get pulled and no actioned.

2006 British Open - Play Off?

Yes at -300
No at +200

So far this year on PGA Tour, 4 of 28 tourneys have had playoffs.

pureklas · #2 07-18-2006, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So far this year on PGA Tour, 4 of 28 tourneys have had playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Newsflash this is not a PGA Tour Event. Had you said something like 4 out of the last 28 british Opens have had play offs i might have given you a tad more credibility. This is a stupid bet IMO.

chev9 · #3 07-18-2006, 02:52 PM

ok, nevermind, off the board already. I hope they allow bets already placed.

playersare · #4 07-18-2006, 02:53 PM

if you check other books with the same props, it's obvious that bodog simply flipped the prices on the YES and NO incorrectly due to clerical error. so not only are you risking your bet cancelled on bodog, they may flag you for being a wiseass and affect your future bonuses or even close your account. not worth it.

chev9 · #5 07-18-2006, 02:54 PM

I understand this isn't a PGA event, the 4 of 28 was just a quick research project. Are British Opens substanitally more likely to have playoffs? I don't see why they would be. Do you think 67% of golf tourneys in general result in playoffs?

I'd love to hear your rationale for why this is a dumb bet.

pureklas · #6 07-18-2006, 04:33 PM

The British Open is played on a completely different type of golf course, in completely different conditions to what you are use to on the PGA Tour. I said it was a stupid bet because you didn't appear to put any real thought into the bet. You simply stated the number of times this has happened in non majors never mind links golf. That said here are the list of play offs in the British Open history make of them what you will:

2004 -- Todd Hamilton def. Ernie Els at Royal Troon, Troon, Scotland.
2002 -- Ernie Els def. Thomas Levet, Staurt Appleby and Steve Elkinigton at Muirfield, Gullane, Scotland.
1999 -- Paul Lawrie def. Justin Leonard and Jean Van de Velde at Carnoustie, Carnoustie, Scotland.
1998 -- Mark O’Meara def. Brian Watts at Royal Birkdale, Southport, England.
1995 -- John Daly def. Costantino Rocca at St. Andrews, Scotland.
1989 -- Mark Calcavecchia def. Wayne Grady and Greg Norman at Royal Troon, Troon, Scotland.
1975 -- Tom Watson def. Jack Newton at Carnoustie, Scotland.
1970 -- Jack Nicklaus def. Doug Sanders at St. Andrews, Scotland.
1963 -- Bob Charles def. Phil Rodgers at Royal Lytham, England.
1958 -- Peter Thomson def. Dave Thomas at Royal Lytham, Lytham, England.
1949 -- Bobby Locke def. Harry Bradsham at Royal St. George’s, Sandwich, England.
1933 -- Denny Shute def. Craig Wood at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland.
1921 -- Jack Hutchison def. Roger Wethered at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland.
1911 -- Harry Vardon def. Arnaud Massy at Royal St. George’s, Sandwich, England.
1896 -- Harry Vardon def. J.H. Taylor at Muirfield, Gullane, Scotland.
1889 - Willie Park, Jr.def. Andrew Kirkaldy at Musselburgh, Musselburgh, Scotland.
1883 -- Willie Fernie def. Bob Ferguson at Musselburgh, Musselburgh, Scotland.
1876 -- Bob Martin awarded title when David Strath refused playoff at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland.

chev9 · #7 07-18-2006, 04:41 PM

So, 18 playoffs in 130 years. About the same ratio as 4 in 28. Hmmm. My sample size was fine, and there's no way the golf course substantially changes the odds of a playoff. I'd like to hear more about that theory.

So, given this information, would you bet the no at +200 if you could? Would it hypothetically still be a stupid bet?

For the record, Bodog did make a mistake and the real line is -300 on the no. They have no actioned the bets and returned the money.

pureklas · #8 07-18-2006, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, 18 playoffs in 130 years. About the same ratio as 4 in 28. You got lucky on this, for your own sake do not make comparisons between non-major PGA Tour events and the British Open and there's no way the golf course substantially changes the odds of a playoff. Oh really then why is it mostly the same courses in the list that have play offs and why are they mostly in Scotland.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never had reason to use the American betting point system, +200 means nothing to me.

rest deleted: argumentative, unhelpful -P

mak15 · #9 07-18-2006, 05:29 PM

pureklas,

the bet at the top of thread is clearly a hugely +EV bet. it was a wrong line, you don't really need to research a bet if it is as obviously good as this one.

while he was out of line, don't go out of line yourself in your response -P

pureklas · #10 07-18-2006, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pureklas,

the bet at the top of thread is clearly a hugely +EV bet. it was a wrong line, you don't really need to research a bet if it is as obviously good as this one.

while he was out of line, don't go out of line yourself in your response -P

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with there being value in the bet, however, IMO I still feel that the bet should be researched. If I took every bet that had value in it with no research I would not have much in my coffers. Rest of your comments i have taken on board.