TPTK vs bad lag

mkflsam · #1 07-16-2006, 03:28 AM

Opponent is 62/25 and just really bad.

The reason I called preflop is because UTG raiser was short stacked and I think I get more out of him by just calling and getting it in when I flop a pair. If this is a mandatory 3-bet no matter what let me know. I usually always 3-bet vs a normal sized stack or 50BB. Also, it'd be very nice to get the bad player in the BB along for the ride.

Do you call this river shove? What range of hands do you put him on?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed)

Hero ($395)
Button ($70)
SB ($261.10)
BB ($553.87)
UTG ($139.20)
MP ($400)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises to $15, 1 fold, Hero calls $15, 2 folds, BB calls $11.

Flop: ($47) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $33, BB calls $33, UTG folds.

Turn: ($113) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $83, BB calls $83.

River: ($279) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $422.87 (All-In), Hero...

tannenj · #2 07-16-2006, 03:58 AM

why bet the turn if you don't want to play a huge pot here? did you plan to check behind on the river? if so, fold the river.

KingGordy · #3 07-16-2006, 04:02 AM

Despite the horrednous of this player I still think this river is a fold. AT and KQ are the first likely hands that comes to mind.

all_in_lam · #4 07-16-2006, 04:03 AM

i fold.
he has kq, two pair, or bluff.

i think i'd call wtih AT+ though

mkflsam · #5 07-16-2006, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]

why bet the turn if you don't want to play a huge pot here? did you plan to check behind on the river? if so, fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I definitely do. But I think I'm going to be getting the best of it more often than not when I'm the one putting the chips in instead of calling.

I was just wondering what kind of range people would put him on with his river shove. I would think after seeing someone who has shown strength by betting 3/4 the pot on both the flop and turn he would CRai on the river here with a big hand, would he not?

Still, what kind of range would you put him on? Bluff/two pair/rivered straight? First thing that comes to mind is he backed into some weird two pair hand or rivered the straight. Is the % of having a bluff or a weak one pair hand pushing out of desperation going to outweigh the other two? I doubt he'd slowplay a set here on such a coordinated board for two streets and then change his mind and decide to push. So that leaves the two pair/straight/bluff (or anything I beat) left. If I set that range, do I fold? Call? He only has to be bluffing or pushing with a worse hand 33% of the time right?

tannenj · #6 07-16-2006, 04:13 AM

it's very tough to put these 65/20 lagfish on hands. i'd guess he has you beat most of the time, but has air sometimes. as played, i'm probably swearing and folding this river. you'll probably get his stack soon enough if you had him beat.

mkflsam · #7 07-16-2006, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i fold.
he has kq, two pair, or bluff.

i think i'd call wtih AT+ though

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, he is bad, and I agree I guess this line might look like KQ, but even I don't think someone such as this is going to call two 3/4 pot bets with just a gutshot. KQ of spades is the only reasonable straight and I have the Ks. So I pretty much give him the following range:

KQ (5%) / sets (10%) / bluffs & worse hands (40%) / two pair (45%)

Does that look reasonable? The reason I'm weighing the sets so low is because I'd expect him to CR the turn with them, or do anything besides change his gameplan on the river by pushing when he was slowplaying.

With my ranges I guess I have to call, but are they correct?

#8 07-16-2006, 05:06 AM

why no rr pre?

fyodor · #9 07-16-2006, 08:40 AM

I would disagree on how often he has a set compared to KQ. I think the KQ is more likely. But that's just minor.

Add up all the streets and it's just too weird to have played a set that way. I think a set is the least likely of his holdings. You can almost discount it completely. Surely no more than 5%.

A drawing hand that either got there (KQ) or didn't (flush) is a big part of his range. Like you say it's hard to believe he is bad enough to call the turn bet with only the gutshot so I too wouldn't give that much more than 5%.

A 62/25 is calling with a lot of suited hands in the BB so I give the flush draw a big number. Some of his flush draws actually beat you - any combo of 5,6,T.

He also has a lot of hands with an Ace. The worse his kicker the more likely he has it. AK he surely raises pf, with a pfr% of 25. AQ he likely plays stronger as well. With AJ you would think he would at least come alive on the turn. Same with A6, A5. So most of the Aces he has you're ahead, and it's not hard to see him playing them the way he did. These total donkeys will not lay down any Ace even if it's blatantly obvious they are outkicked.

AT or an accidental 2 pair with the flush draw are the big worries.

TT is another unlikely donk push.

However you add up the numbers, I think you are good here right around the 1 time in 3 that you require to call. The thing that pushes the numbers slightly in your favour is how stupid it is for even a donkey to so overbet the river with what he thinks is a winning hand.

The thing that keeps it close is that a donkey might actually expect a call from a worse hand and/or a fold from a better hand.

pokeriseasy · #10 07-16-2006, 11:02 AM

Have you seen him make an overbet push before? What is his aggression number? If he is this loose with a high aggression he's pretty likely to be betting an A on the flop. If he's not very aggressive then this river push is a lot less likely to be a bluff. I do think QK is very possible considering how loose he is.

I think this is either QK or a missed flush draw. I can't see AT overbet pushing this river. I can't see a flopped set from a player that is this loose playing the hand that way. I'm not saying in all situation it's the nuts or air but against this player I'm pretty certain it's the nuts or air, and it depends on his aggression whether I'm willing to call or not. If he's passive post flop this is an easy fold if he's very aggresive then I lean towards a call.