TT vs a tight player

Genesis · #1 01-20-2006, 02:37 AM

Opponent in this hand is tight but not very aggressive, something like 13/6 preflop and maybe 1.4 postflop.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 5 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero folds.

I was ready to check-fold the turn but figured there was still a chance he might have AQ or possibly be willing to fold a hand like AJ or QQ, although doubtful. After he called the turn I can't see how I am ahead any longer. Standard?

bennyhana · #2 01-20-2006, 02:47 AM

That's what I'd do, but I don't think it is right.

moose47 · #3 01-20-2006, 03:40 AM

I would bet/fold. I would expect a J to raise the flop and a K to raise the turn and the 9 doesn't scare me so I think we have the best hand quite a bit here. Sometimes I will check the river to induce a bluff so given the check I would go ahead and call.

Genz · #4 01-20-2006, 03:43 AM

UTG2 raises maybe 4% of his hands from that position. You are a major underdog against that range (AQs+, AKo, 99+). Even if he's a bad player and doesn't care about position and raises with 6% of his hands, you are still an underdog. So a fold preflop is easily justified, imo. I wouldn't care too much about competing with a tight player holding a PP that improves rarely but is scared by a lot of overcards that can easily help villain. Pick a better spot (or a worse opponent) to play.
EDIT: being in the sb and therefore getting better odds doesn't help too much here, because you need to raise to push bb out.

Since you decided to play, you played it pretty well, imo. reraise from sb is standard to push BB out. As preflop aggressor you bet any flop. The turn is not too likely to be a scare card for villain but a bet is ok. If he really is too weak he might fold AQ, JJ here. Maybe even QQ. But in most cases you are probably still behind. The river is a fold that I'd hate to make but it really looks as if villain just wanted you to bet his hand for him (maybe even slowplay AA or AK to the river. I see that all the time (and it's freaking me out)).

Genz · #5 01-20-2006, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think we have the best hand quite a bit here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range do you put villain on here? We are behind all reasonable holdings. The only thing we might beat is AQ. All his other probably holdings have us covered: Big PPs, AK, AJ (if that is still reasonable anyway), 99 (definitly on the lower end).

moose47 · #6 01-20-2006, 04:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you put villain on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Just a rough estimate but given his stats and the lack of a preflop cap I am going with 88-JJ, AT+, KQs

After he just calls our flop and turn bet I think we can safely rule out JJ. He could conceivably be playing every other hand in this manner and against the remaining range our equity is right around 50%.

Curtrosity · #7 01-20-2006, 05:07 AM

I'm betting/folding river.

ajm36 · #8 01-20-2006, 07:04 AM

nh

He Probably folds 88 and TT and AQ on the turn, I really think we are behind most of his EP 2-bet range (and I really doubt 88 are in his EP PFR range). He's calling because you're the PF 3-bettor. In his position, I call this down with AJ (except I raise the flop, call a 3-bet and call down, KQ, QQ (I cap with Q's PF and raise the flop--but he's weak), AK(although I may raise the turn depending what I though of you). I would not be folding a single hand that beats you on this board, but I would be folding hands on the turn UI which could improve to beat your hand. He also potentially slowplays a set of jacks here. I think your turn fold equity is high enough for one bet, once he calls, he's not calling or betting a single thing on the river we beat--I think c/f the river is standard (I would make a crying call because I sucksucksuck).

ajm36 · #9 01-20-2006, 07:10 AM

why? he's not calling anything on the turn we beat, so he's not folding to a river bet and he's definitely not calling anything on the river we beat. If checked to, he's also not betting anything on the river we beat--he'll take a free showdown with a worse hand or something like TT, AQ, or AT(I don't even think AT is likely) but anything he bets is on the board and we lose.

shant · #10 01-20-2006, 07:29 AM

The only hand you're ahead of on the turn in this dude's range is AQ. I'd check/fold the turn.