Statistical analysis of the week

[HesseJam]

Ladies and Gentlemen, may I have your attention for this week's useless stat analyisis:

I measured in 500 (probably not enough for the following analisis) PS 15+1 tourneys where i reached the bubble

a) at the start of the bubble
b) what percentage of the total prize money I would finally end up with
c) dependent on my stack size number (1-4)

Result

Big stack: 35.9 % of the prize money
2nd stack: 30.2 %
3rd stack: 21.2 %
small stack: 14.3%

What does it all mean?

- Expectancy for 2nd and 3rd stack are very close to the 2nd and 3rd place prize money. This was unexpected to me since i though everybody would chip in for the small stack's EV.

- Expectancy for Big stack is 30% less than first place prize money and this is handed through to small stack. => It doesn't matter much whether you are Big stack or 2nd big stack at the start of the bubble. OTH, it does matter 3 times as much if you bust out 5th or if you get to the bubble as a small stack. I am busting out at 5th the most.

- Everytime i shove my small stack I risk 14.3%.

- If I shove it and it would make me the 3rd stack I'd gain 7% if I won the hand. I'd lose 14.3% if i lost the hand.

- If stacksizes were such that I'd shove for instance against the 2nd stack and this would make me the 2nd stack I'd gain 15.7%. I would gain more than I risk to lose the 14.3%.

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
Ladies and Gentlemen, may I have your attention for this week's useless stat analyisis:

I measured in 500 (probably not enough for the following analisis) PS 15+1 tourneys where i reached the bubble

a) at the start of the bubble
b) what percentage of the total prize money I would finally end up with
c) dependent on my stack size number (1-4)

Result

Big stack: 35.9 % of the prize money
2nd stack: 30.2 %
3rd stack: 21.2 %
small stack: 14.3%

What does it all mean?

- Expectancy for 2nd and 3rd stack are very close to the 2nd and 3rd place prize money. This was unexpected to me since i though everybody would chip in for the small stack's EV.

- Expectancy for Big stack is 30% less than first place prize money and this is handed through to small stack. => It doesn't matter much whether you are Big stack or 2nd big stack at the start of the bubble. OTH, it does matter 3 times as much if you bust out 5th or if you get to the bubble as a small stack. I am busting out at 5th the most.

- Everytime i shove my small stack I risk 14.3%.

- If I shove it and it would make me the 3rd stack I'd gain 7% if I won the hand. I'd lose 14.3% if i lost the hand.

- If stacksizes were such that I'd shove for instance against the 2nd stack and this would make me the 2nd stack I'd gain 15.7%. I would gain more than I risk to lose the 14.3%.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics

Indy

[jws43yale]

The only folly I see in part of this logic is that the reason as a small stack you are wrth 14.7 percent is b/c you take the risk of pushing. So I feel that the comparison to what you gain by becoming 3rd stack is irrelevant. Your 4th stack might be worth less if you missed pushes and worth more if you have been making bad pushes.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

- Everytime i shove my small stack I risk 14.3%.


[/ QUOTE ]

That is not true. Sure, in your sample it is. But what if you started pushing more or less because of the percieved risk you take. Then the number would change significantly.

Also, there is a huge difference between having a small stack of 10xBB and one of 2xBB when the bubble starts. And being the big stack when you have 200 chips more than the second is different from for example having 85% of the chips in play.

I think you would get more relevant results if you analyzed from stack size (in BBs or in absolute terms). I have a hard time seeing how it changes much about how the bubble should be played though.

Btw, didn't someone test the correlation between stacksize at the start of level 3 (or 4) and money won a while ago?

[NHFunkii]

I know you already said this is useless, but just in case anyone out here got any ideas - this really is useless.

[HesseJam]

I know I know. It's useful only to me (and only a little) to check how I play.

But the thing Freudian suggested is not. I wanted to this for 6 months now. But I will check for start at the 4th level.

[HesseJam]

"That is not true. Sure, in your sample it is. But what if you started pushing more or less because of the percieved risk you take. Then the number would change significantly.

Also, there is a huge difference between having a small stack of 10xBB and one of 2xBB when the bubble starts. And being the big stack when you have 200 chips more than the second is different from for example having 85% of the chips in play. "

Sure