$25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair

[SumZero]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed)

Villian is 15/5/2.1 based on ~375 hands

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($77.30)
Button ($10.70)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($24.75)</font>
BB ($25)
UTG ($23.95)
UTG+1 ($8.25)
UTG+2 ($9.15)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 ($54.90)</font>
MP2 ($32)
MP3 ($31.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $2.25.

Flop: ($6.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.25</font>, MP1 calls $4.25.

Turn: ($15.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

What's my best line?

[jmxthievez]

Pot it

[towery]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot it

[/ QUOTE ]
And leave himself with 2 bucks?

[BalugaWhale]

push

[BalugaWhale]

I'll elaborate.

this board is really, really wet

JT is drawing, as is any spades, etc.

He is likely to hold AQ or even KQ and will stack off if you push here, so just make it happen. I don't think you can be wrong by pushing.

If the board was dryer, you could crai, but this isn't an appropriate time for that IMO.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll elaborate.

this board is really, really wet

JT is drawing, as is any spades, etc.

He is likely to hold AQ or even KQ and will stack off if you push here, so just make it happen. I don't think you can be wrong by pushing.

If the board was dryer, you could crai, but this isn't an appropriate time for that IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what to make of opp only raising 5% of his hands? If he raises the top 5.4% of hands he is raising 99+,AQ+,AJs. Now it is only 375 hands, but he is in MP1 not CO or Button, so I think expecting him to be raising/calling with hands like JT is less likely. Due to position, and the fact he called the raise, he may be even tighter like TT+,AQs,AK.

And I have Ks so AKs of spades isn't a possible holding.

What will call an AI: AQ,QQ+,and maybe AsJs. Against that range I'm only a 52.7% favorite.

if it were the tighter range than he will call the AI with: AQs,QQ+ against that range I'm a 26% dog.

Am I just seeing too many monsters?

What I actually did:
<font color="white"> went against my gut and bet $10, was raise AI, and called. He had QQ and rivered quads. </font>

[JackAll]

Yeah, I was in a similar position a couple of weeks ago.

Tightie rz's and calls a rrz to 12BB in position which is quite a bit for a tightie to call.
Then he calls the flop bet which often means it's not AK. So I think AA/QQ are most likely, both of which will take our whole stack. The only thing we beat is AQ (and any half sensible tightie will fold AQ to a rrz).

In my case, he raised the flop and I folded.

I think that checking on the turn here loses you the least here on a dangerous board. I would call up to half pot and fold otherwise. I might be a nit, but losing lots of stacks has had an effect on me (not necessarily a good effect tho).

[Vivalution]

I push. Even though Villain's range is narrow, I don't think he is ahead of you here too often. In my opinion the scariest holding for villain is QQ, and that is a rare occurence.

[JackAll]

AA would call a push I believe. Or atleast I would if I had AA.

KK is a differnet story...