25/50 deepstack (most interesting hand in a while!)

[theBruiser500]

4 tabling 25/50 on stars, playing LAG on them but have good hands in the big pots for the most part. I have $23,000 and Bet2win has $16,000. In the last few minutes I have raised a lot of hands so I expected a reraise. I bet $200 and B2Win reraises to $800, he is a tough opponent.

I call, i was going to reraise if i had a decent hand but 99 seems like an okay one to just call with. So that's decision one. Flop is Qh Qs Th, I check he checks. Don't see a point in choosing different action here.

Turn is 7c, I bet $1200, he minraises to $2400, I raise to $4800, he calls.

River pot is $11,000, he has $11,000 left. What ar eyour thoughts? River card is Jo, what are your thoughts now?

[ahnuld]

I think it was a trap on the flop and theres a decent chance he flopped full.He also might have AA KK JJ and checked the flop fairly standardly. Now what do you think hell do if we push if he has AA or KK? Insta fold?

[N 82 50 24]

I think he's just as capable of playing a T like this as he is playing a Q. From what I know about bet2win, he likes to re-raise a lot of deep-stack type hands when he thinks you're getting too aggro -- hands like JT, T9, T8, J9, other suited lower cards (hearts in this case) -- all hands he could very well have here that he would fold to a big bet on the river (or at the very least you'd force him to make a huge call). I think your raise to $4800 looks weak, which would incline him to call with a T. However, he has many stronger hands in his range as well that he wouldn't fold to a big river bet -- most decent Qs (esp the ones that are full), TT, JJ, etc. But still, I think there's decent value in bluffing here because he will fold his T or J and most pocket pairs that didn't make a boat. I'm not sure of his calling range with regards to various bet sizes on the river, but I would imagine he'd fold most preflop premium hands to pressure and most of his preflop deep-stack hands that he would continue with didn't get there in terms of making a big hand.

[cero_z]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it was a trap on the flop and theres a decent chance he flopped full.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty unlikely line (ck behind, minraise turn) for boat at this limit/these skilled players. It's more of a pot-control play generally. Could be an overpair, as you noted, but I'd say a T or JJ, 88, 66, AK are more likely.

Bruiser, I vote shut it down. The Jack makes more hands that you don't beat and won't fold, and it seems like you were already possibly against a T. Now, a T will fold, possibly, but maybe not. Obv all-in or ck, I vote ck and fold to most anything. The fact that you posted and think it's an interesting hand, though, makes me wonder if you won it somehow.

[HEK]

The only hand I'd be worried about calling a river shove is 77 JJ...or QQ. I'm with cero in that his flop check is definitely pot control with an overpair, A10, 88 type hand.

A good player with these stacks is firing with a queen or T T on that flop nearly 100% of the time. If he was full on the turn I would certainly expect more than a miniraise. Also, I don't see him ever calling your turn 3bet with AK.

I think it's +EV to shove. He MUST fold an overpair enough times to make it profitable.

[HEK]

Why did you only raise to $4800? I'm interested in your reasoning.

[MDMA]

Basically because the intimidation of having to call a full-sized pot bet of 11k on river will make him fold many hands right away even for that minraise if he believes bruiser to be firing river often enough on any card here. Raising to much more would only make the pot "unbluffable" on river, nearly.

(Still one could of course argue that by raising more would lead villain to believe that if we push river we would "never" be bluffing because of betsize versus potsize and because of that he could call turn and always fold river, but I don't feel those lines of thought are very realistical.)

[HEK]

Meh, you really think that B2W is gonna fold AA, KK, A 10, JJ for like 1/5th pot there?

[MDMA]

As I said, that depends on how often he believes bruiser to be firing river basically no matter what (and of course how often he's intended on calling that riverbet). If he thinks bruiser is betting river a LOT and still intends to fold to his bet most of the time, then calling is obviously spewing.

The fact that it is "only" 1/5 of pot shouldn't be the main factor in making his decision.

Is he often trapping us by making this call that looks very strong (if we believe this, we should obv check/give up river), or is he making this call w/ AA/KK or something just because he KNOWS his call looks so strong/trapping, that he expects us to shut down and give him a check/check river? No, this second alternative doesn't make much sense, and here's why:

The answer, to me, lies in that he minraised turn; it just doesn't make sense to me to minraise a non-nutty hand w/ which he should be wanting the potsize kept down/close the action, and then all of a sudden make a cold-call of another small raise in hoping to represent more strength than he has, now instead hoping to get a check-check on river. The reasons doesn't make sense put together.

Simply put, the reasons for the first minraise doesn't go well together w/ how we would motivate the call of the next minraise as the hand turned out.

i think you really overplayed it on the turn

btw i think betting flop is a pretty decent idea and perhaps better than checking