A couple limpers and a BB pusher

jon_1van · #1 07-13-2006, 11:21 AM

This is a PS 180/20er

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t4981)
UTG+1 (t11836)
Hero (t4811)
MP2 (t5315)
CO (t3391)
Button (t11570)
SB (t3180)
BB (t8005)

Preflop: Hero is in MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t200, Hero calls t200, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t100, BB raises to t7980 (All-in), UTG+1 folds, Hero ????

I'd like to hear everyone answer 2 questions ::

-BB's range (the hands don't have to be exactly in or out..you could say he plays TT this way 80% or something like that)
-Your action

jon_1van · #2 07-13-2006, 12:49 PM

bump

Burno · #3 07-13-2006, 01:07 PM

Fold

His range is very often TT+, AQ+ here. Some of the time he will we pushing something like 55+, AJs+ but even then you are in bad shape.

It's probably AK more than anything else.

NoahSD · #4 07-13-2006, 01:16 PM

Most of the times that I see the massive overbet push, it's a middle pair, so like 66-JJ. Less often than that, it's AK, and even less often (in order of frequency) is QQ-KK, AA, and weird stuff.

Anyway, this is really often 66-JJ, so I'd fold 88 here, but call 99. This is close, though. It's a good hand to post.

2Fast · #5 07-13-2006, 02:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the times that I see the massive overbet push, it's a middle pair, so like 66-JJ. Less often than that, it's AK, and even less often (in order of frequency) is QQ-KK, AA, and weird stuff.

Anyway, this is really often 66-JJ, so I'd fold 88 here, but call 99. This is close, though. It's a good hand to post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking I also call with 99+ too...plus AQs+ (ok maybe AKo+) here too. Agree that this is a good hand to post.

jon_1van · #6 07-13-2006, 02:38 PM

So here's what I thought at the time.

AA-KK :: probably not..he'd want action..but it's possible
QQ :: a little more likely that AA-KK...but still unlikely
JJ-TT :: I say 90% chance he plays this hand this way
99 :: 33% chance he plays the hand this way
77-22 :: ~15% chance he plays the hand this way

AK,AQ,AJ :: Very high likely hood he pushes with these hands
KQ, AT :: Its possible..say 25% chance?

What do people think about this range???

NoahSD · #7 07-13-2006, 02:40 PM

Just from experience, I don't think this is AJ-AK that often. Granted, I haven't seen these called a huge amount of the time.

jon_1van · #8 07-13-2006, 02:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the time he will we pushing something like 55+, AJs+ but even then you are in bad shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure???

Obviously I'm crushed by a AQ+, TT+ range. But when you add in a few hands I crush AND 16 more combos of AJ which I'm ahead of w/o the deadmoney. The hand quickly leaves clear fold territory

Burno · #9 07-13-2006, 02:58 PM

Yes it would be marginally +EV with the dead money if he were shoving 55+, AJ+, but that is best case scenario. If he's pushing stuff like 55/66 or AJ here, it's almost certainly not 100% of the time, probably a small % of the time.

Most of the time his range here is more like 99+, AQ+. In a 20/180, I am certain you can find a better spot with your stack and these blinds than calling AI hoping his range is wider than it probably should be.

jon_1van · #10 07-13-2006, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes it would be marginally +EV with the dead money if he were shoving 55+, AJ+, but that is best case scenario. If he's pushing stuff like 55/66 or AJ here, it's almost certainly not 100% of the time, probably a small % of the time.

Most of the time his range here is more like 99+, AQ+. In a 20/180, I am certain you can find a better spot with your stack and these blinds than calling AI hoping his range is wider than it probably should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on all points.