WPX 3/6, flop

[JojoDiego]

WPX 3/6, 9 handed

Reads:

SB - 23.5/6.4/.5, 157 hands
BB - 14/9.4/.8, 64 hands, probable 2+2er
UTG+1 - 20.9/8.7/5.8, 115 hands

Hero is M2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG folds, UTG+1 limps, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop (8 SB): K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero?

[sweetjazz]

Take your free card.

[XmasXmas]

[ QUOTE ]
Take your free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

what free card? i'd call and fold the turn UI.

[dano]

call. SB and BB are passive, so you probably won't get check raised. You have the outs and odds to see the turn here.

[Warren Harding]

Arguments for calling:[*] 9:1 explicit odds, you have gutshot, overcard and BDFD outs that are dirty, but still sufficient. Implied odds are great on three of the tens becuase anyone with a Q will have a worse straight, and there are excellent two pair possibilities.[*] UTG+1 bets often, therefore lightly[*] You probably will not get a free card if you raise due to the aggression of utg1 and the coordinated nature of the board[*] due to the board, the chance of getting 3bet if you raise is high, and given that you are borderline to draw to the gutshot, having to put in three bets makes your draw unprofitable[*] You are unlikely to be checkraised

Arguments for Raising[*] utg is aggressive enough to bluff or bet someting you may have 12 outs against[*] if above holds, you may clean up A and Q outs (too optimistic IMO)[*] you may get it heads up (fold equity)

There are probably more, but in all, I find the calling arguments more solid.

[SixForty]

Well, raising is out, since you don't have the equity, there's almost no way you'll get a free card, it's doubtful that your pair outs are worth trying to clean up,.....

Getting 9-1 on a gutshot with 3 clean outs and 1 dirty out against possible redraws, throw in an out for the backdoor flush draw and maybe a half an out for your Ace, it's borderline.

I'd say the difference between calling and folding is very minimal here. In this case, I'd call mainly because it looks like the remaining opponents are passive enough that you won't get checkraised often, and the flop better is aggressive enough that'll you'll make money when you hit.

But if I folded it, I wouldn't give it another worry at all.

[dchz]

well i hate posting after mr. harding, everythign i say is less analytical and i have nothing to add... call for the gutshot and the BDFD you have the odds

[RED_RAIN]

Folding is bad

[raze]

Easy call for gutshot alone, no?

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call for gutshot alone, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think the nuts gutshot is worth it, the possible outs on your backdoor flush draw. And the fact that the front two people will likely fold, and the bettor could easily have a draw.